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$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ Lisa Su met with Dylan Pat...
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ Lisa Su met with Dylan Patel yesterday for about an hour and a half or so. and they went back and forth discussing what is AMD doing right now right and what are they not doing correctly to compete. Dylan Patel for those that don't know he is the leading edge the best. at least in this point in time semiconductor analyst / consultant in the world. he's not a spreadsheet guy he is meeting with these people globally face to face real time and he understands the direction of where data center growth is going we're large language model training is going he's 10 steps ahead of everybody else.
the result of this meeting between the two is he says he is very excited to see the changes that AMD will be making this up and coming year.
this is not something that's going to take place in 30 days or 90 days or 120 days to change a big ships direction takes time and he has the potential to do great things but their personal computer business is going to show a decline in the fourth quarter and that's because of Dell and that's because of micron it's because drams are dirt cheap and everyone's having to dump them to compete on price to wait till the next cycle comes in of growth. gaming on AMD is nothing to write home about either. go to the divisions there's really little to no growth at this point in time but AI is their future and AMD has more of a threat of competition than Nvidia does. so AMD has to work harder and faster or their edge that they have right now dwindles that much quicker that's because Nvidia has the software end AMD does not.
my thoughts are if AMD disappoints January 28th and the stock takes a hit you buy it on that dip.
what I'm probably going to do and I mentioned this about a week and a half ago when the stock was like 124 and then it went down into the teens.
amdl is a 2X leverage ETF I'm probably going to go out and sell some puts even though they're going to pay me less now because the stock has moved up percentage-wise on this ETF a fair amount in the past week.
but I'm probably going to initiate a small position selling puts and if I get put the ETF and the stock trends lower after the 28th I'm not going to fret about it because if Lisa does execute if if if.. then they will have margin expansion coming in the back half of the year. so for me when I say I'm going to take a small position like 1% of my account smaller than anything else that I have right now. if we go to zero it represents less volatility then yesterday's move of microstrategy stock down. but at some point you have to initiate a position. I think the fact that she met with Dylan Patel shows she's looking to improve she's seeking out solutions that perceive the business differently than she does.
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xiaoswee : amdl is cheap, great for selling puts, thanks for the tip bro
10baggerbamm OP xiaoswee : AMDL, THIS IS WHAT I WILL SELL THE PUTS ON NOT THE COMMON STOCK
MonkeyGee : This is a great piece. I was getting Fomo but something was telling me don't. This could be the reason.
xiaoswee 10baggerbamm OP : yes i did that for nvidia, hold nvda, wheel nvdl. Mayb i will do the same for amd
digimonX : More FUD as usual.
Dram price dump does not mean demand for PC/notebook is going to be lower in Q4. It can mean overproduction. It can also mean memory production companies like Micron, Hynix & Samsung over-estimated demand for smartphones. Now left with a large stockpile.
Q4 is seasonally the strongest quarter for PC & notebook sales due to holiday shopping. Q1 is comparatively weaker. Nothing new here. People spread FUD as if they discovered something new.
In addition, Intel has a higher marketshare in terms of PC/notebook sales. A slower market does not necessarily mean AMD is severely impacted. They can still take marketshare from Intel. AMD has a lot of room to grow from 30% - 35% marketshare currently. Online channels e.g. Amazon & Mindfactory show AMD outselling Intel CPUs by a large margin. AMD's 9800X3D CPUs are flying off store shelves & they are not able to stock them quickly enough. Lots of demand still to be fulfilled.
Read these articles, give you some perspective of CPU sales on 2 consecutive months:
notebookcheck.n...
AMD AM5 & AM4 Platforms Dominate Intel By A Huge Margin In Germany But Intel Motherboard Sales Refuse To Grow
digimonX : On the AI software stack, AMD is aware of the need to bridge the gap with nVidia. This is the reason they acquired Silo AI & ZT Systems recently. Having conversations with analysts is important more for managing wallstreet & prevent more FUD being created by analysts & fake news outlets (in my opinion). I am certain Lisa & gang know exactly which aspects they are lacking. One thing Patel is right here - it takes time for all these efforts & acquisitions to show results. Just for comparison, it took AMD 6 - 7 years to dethrone Intel & make the competitor irrelevant.
AMD has made attempts to increase exposure of its software ecosystem by creating blogs & written contents from early this year. They are also launching a Youtube Channel for developers to expand the medium of knowledge delivery. See article below:
phoronix.com/ne...
10baggerbamm OP digimonX : the comments from micron in the comments from Dell show a lack of consumer demand so the only way you can work through consumer demand is to cut prices that's how it's done because the manufacturing has already built dram chips Dell has already built the personal computer line. the mu drama chips in cell phones are already built so what do they do with the cell phones they give them away through cellular one AT&T Verizon rather than give you one they give you two just to get rid of the inventory they have to work through the inventory because the demand side on consumer end is weaker than what was anticipated that's why there's an abundance of supply and that's why they said back half that's what micron said back half of 25
digimonX 10baggerbamm OP : If the smartphones have been manufactured, technically Micron has sold the drams. So, the inventory issue is with the smartphone manufacturers - they have finished goods that they can't sell or like how you described, give for free. The fact that Micron's forecast is lower means the smartphone manufacturers are ordering less dram, not having tons of finished products that they cannot sell.
Telcos may still give phones away free when customers sign mobile contracts. I have not seen Dell, Lenovo, Acer, etc give their PCs away just to clear inventory. I've never gotten a free PC before.
I have mentioned before - smartphone unit sales are much higher than PC unit sales worldwide (65% vs 35%). See chart below. PC demand here is 1/3 of overall dram market. Besides, AMD can still take marketshare from Intel, as online channels show the last few months. So, I don't understand why your continuous gloom & doom affecting only AMD.
BTW, you should really go & warn Apple, Samsung, Micron, Hynix, Qualcomm investors of the impending demand destruction going their way.