Interpretation of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index Market
First, let's review last week's market performance.
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$The performance was like a roller coaster, extremely unstable, but the momentum remains strong. Firstly, in the A-share market, the overall trend is still strong. Especially, in the last week of September, it broke through the high point of 2023.22700And continued to rise, so the market hit a new high for the year last Monday.23241points, marking the first return to points since 2022.23000points.
However, after the National Day holiday, the market immediately experienced a sharp pullback, with a single-day drop of 2172 points, once exceeding 2300 points, completely wiping out last week's gains. The single-day trading volume reached 620.7 billion yuan, setting a new historical high, which is truly exaggerated! The market further declined afterwards, while also testing at one point. 20000 The resistance at 20190. The market reached20190 o'clock , starting to rebound, boosted by the market's optimistic sentiment towards the Ministry of Finance's economic stimulus plan over the weekend, the market surged significantly again on October 11th, finally returning to the upper level of 21000 points, closing at21251points.
The main reason why the stock market failed to continue its upward trend last week: I personally believe that the market needs to experience a healthy correction.Only through a healthy correction can the bull market trend in the market continue, as the market surged significantly from the low point of 16964 on September 11th and then quickly rose like a rocket to23241point, has already accumulated gains 6277点，涨幅非常大，导致20日和50日均线距离当时水平有1500-2000Therefore, a benign adjustment is necessary due to the point difference.The premise is that as long as the market can stabilize above 20,000 points.and, most importantly,as long as global funds continue to allocate and invest in Hong Kong stocks,this bull market will definitely continue. In addition, the conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission on Tuesday did not announce new policies that could continue to boost the market as expected by the market, leading to a sharp decline in market on that day, with a large amount of profit-taking, resulting in a substantial drop in the market on Tuesday, and trading volume reached a historic high of 620.4 billion yuan.
Analysis of the performance of key stocks last week
On the one hand, after the long holiday, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index () $Ping An Bank (000001.SZ)$ hit a new high last week, with a rise of over 10% from the high level, reaching 3674 points. After the high opening, it immediately faced selling pressure generated by arbitrage profit-taking, causing A-shares to fall all the way from the high of 3674 points last week to the low of 3187 points last week, approaching the low level and closing.
In addition, last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average index in the US $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ ) continued its strong upward trend without any signs of a pullback, especially as the Dow once again broke through its peak and hit a historic high of $42,899. The Nasdaq Composite Index ( $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ also followed the trend of the Dow, remaining strong and approaching historical highs, the Nasdaq Composite Index will undoubtedly break through the previous high, the reason for keeping the US stock market at high levels and continuing to rise lies in the policy of the Federal Reserve.
In addition, Tesla in the U.S. stock market ( $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Due to the announcement of the self-driving taxi "Robotaxi", the stock price plummeted. The market believes there is a lack of key details on self-driving, while Tesla's significant drop actually makes $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ stock price.
In addition, the recent sharp drop in the stock market last week was also due to the top reversal of a group of blue-chip technology leaders Tencent, Alibaba-W, and Meituan-W. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Starting from a range, Meituan's performance has been relatively resilient, quickly bouncing back and outperforming the market in ATM trading. Additionally, HKEX (00388.HK), which had surged due to significant trading volume before, broke through a 52-week high last week but then sharply declined, contributing to the market downturn. However, I remain bullish on the future performance of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ To summarize, the market dropped a total of 1484 points last week, closing at XXXX points. In terms of volume, the total trading volume last week was 1.67 trillion yuan. Compared to the previous week, despite having only four trading days last week, the volume continued to rise, indicating a very active and dynamic trading market. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ ）All began to fall from high levels, but Meituan's trend is relatively resistant to declines and can quickly rebound, performing the best in ATM trading and outperforming the broader market. In addition, due to the previous surge fueled by large trading volumes, $HKEX (00388.HK)$ after breaking through a 52-week high last week, it began to sharply fall from high levels, which was one of the reasons for the market's decline. However, I still bullish on the future performance of the Hong Kong Exchange.
In conclusion, the market fell a total of 1484 points last week, closing at 21251 points. In terms of trading volume, last week's total trading volume was 1.67 trillion yuan, although there were only four trading days last week, trading volume continued to rise, indicating a very active and vibrant trading activity. Will the market be boosted by the economic stimulus policies announced by the financial departments over the weekend, thus driving the market higher next week?The next resistance level in the market is expected to be the high point of 23241 points last week, while the support level below has turned into 20000 points.
Outlook for this week from 10.14 to 10.18
Hang Seng Index rebounded on Friday, closing up by 2.98%, and the trend trading indicators issued a signal that the daily line golden cross is imminent. A daily line golden cross is bullish for 2-3 days.It is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rebound in the first half of this week, with a target level of around 22400 points.
From the weekly trend perspective,It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will enter the weekly death cross phase in the second half of this week, and the weekly death cross generally sees a 2-3 week adjustment period.From a time cycle perspective, the Hang Seng Index will experience range-bound volatility between the rebound and the end of October, gradually digesting the pressure from the post-holiday large bearish candle. During this period, buying at the lower end of the range-bound volatility and selling at the upper end is advisable.
From the weekly trend perspective,It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will enter the weekly death cross phase in the second half of this week, and the weekly death cross generally sees a 2-3 week adjustment period.From a time cycle perspective, the Hang Seng Index will experience range-bound volatility between the rebound and the end of October, gradually digesting the pressure from the post-holiday large bearish candle. During this period, buying at the lower end of the range-bound volatility and selling at the upper end is advisable.
Once the Hang Seng Index regenerates a weekly golden cross signal in early November, it is expected to break the previous high of 23241 points, officially initiating a new round of weekly golden cross trend.The reason for making this prediction is based on the Hang Seng Index currently being in a once-in-20-years situation where the yearly moving average is turning downwards towards the lower range, coupled with the resonance of the monthly moving average, indicating that after experiencing a 3-year super bear market, the future of reaching 30,000 points is promising! At that time, many leading technology stocks will enter a bull market rally of 1-2 times and have the chance to surpass historical highs!
In terms of the pace of the Hang Seng Tech Index, it synchronizes with the Hang Seng Index. This week, the rebound is first expected to reach around 5160 points, and then enter a range-bound movement. After starting a new round of weekly golden cross trend in early November, it will break through the previous high of 5451 points.
Focus on sectors from October 14th to October 18th of this week.
$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$ Taking advantage of the market correction this week, I am deploying the domestic consumer sector, as boosting the economy and promoting consumption are top priorities. China Duty Free has a good fundamental outlook, and its future growth will benefit from the massive demand in the tourism market. I bought in at around 63 yuan, with a short-term target hoping to rise to 80 yuan.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ This week, Alibaba's stock price also entered a consolidation phase after sharply rising with the overall market, although temporarily falling below the 10-day moving average. However, the overall trend is at a high level of consolidation. I believe that if Alibaba further retraces to the 20-day moving average around 97 yuan, it would be the best time to add positions again, because the Singles' Day sales should be bullish for Alibaba and provide an opportunity to boost the stock price performance.
$LI NING (02331.HK)$ This week, Li Ning's stock price also followed the overall market and fell back to the key support level of 18 yuan, once again falling below the 250-day moving average (19 yuan), with unsatisfactory performance, underperforming the overall market. However, there is still hope that the current policy measures to boost the economy will stimulate consumption, thereby pushing Li Ning's stock price to recover above the 250-day moving average and return to above 20 yuan.
$LI NING (02331.HK)$ This week, Li Ning's stock price also followed the overall market and fell back to the key support level of 18 yuan, once again falling below the 250-day moving average (19 yuan), with unsatisfactory performance, underperforming the overall market. However, there is still hope that the current policy measures to boost the economy will stimulate consumption, thereby pushing Li Ning's stock price to recover above the 250-day moving average and return to above 20 yuan.
Although A-shares have started to consolidate after a rally following the Hong Kong stock market, the market is bullish on the future trend of A-shares. Therefore, this week, it is advisable to closely monitor ETFs related to A-shares, such as tracking technology sector ETFs or tracking ETFs with double leverage. $FTSE China A50 Index (.FTXIN9.CN)$The $CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF (02822.HK)$or tracking $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$的 $CSOP Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF (03133.HK)$with double leverage $CSOP CSI 300 Index Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07233.HK)$ 。
If everyone believes that the Hang Seng Technology Index can return to 5000 points in the future, it may be a good idea to deploy an ETF tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index during the pullback phase. $CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$Or with double leverage. $CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily (2X) Leveraged Product (07226.HK)$。
On the contrary, if investors think that the Hang Seng Technology Index may further test 4000 points, it is worth paying attention to or deploying a reverse ETF for hedging purposes. $CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07552.HK)$Used for hedging purposes.
On the contrary, if investors think that the Hang Seng Technology Index may further test 4000 points, it is worth paying attention to or deploying a reverse ETF for hedging purposes. $CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07552.HK)$Used for hedging purposes.
The above content is purely personal insights for sharing purposes, and can only be used as a reference, not as investment advice.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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蛇蛇 : I wanted to ask you what this indicator is.