AI bubble
Let's chat over the weekend. I think the future AI will evolve into a bubble, which will bring a wave of unprecedented opportunities, and of course it also has great risks. Without a bubble, it would be difficult for US stocks to recover significantly. Any short-term risk up to that point would be a good time to lay out. Investments surrounding this AI have also been an opportunity for US stocks for a long time.
Historically, major technological revolutions will create big bubbles. The power revolution in 1920 and the Internet revolution in the last 00 years cannot escape the formation of a huge bubble. This AI revolution also cannot escape the fate of the bubble. What is behind this is the inevitability of historical development. Perhaps these technological revolutions are all naturally prone to bubbles.
I think there are two main reasons: the technological revolution is short-lived for corporate profits. It is undeniable that the technological revolution brings about a boost in productivity, but it is generally short and has a significant effect on the company's profits in the short term. Generally, this kind of growth is difficult to maintain, because once effective, large amounts of capital will enter to compete, which will cause excess profits to be shared evenly. People think that companies that are now very profitable and growing rapidly will continue to grow rapidly in the future. This is the reason for the bubble.
The second reason is that people generally believe that individual companies will benefit from the technological revolution, so it is inferred that similar companies will also benefit. There are many examples of these markets. The most recent one was the 20-year electric vehicle concept. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Stock prices have doubled tenfold in a year, and there are also many emerging companies. Many have even increased their stock prices 10 times during the ppt stage. Investors think that Tesla's success will also be replicated to other companies, causing these companies to have a huge bubble. Now I'm looking at none of these electric vehicle startups that can deliver on investors' expectations.
Although I know it's a bubble, most investors can't avoid it, because investors actually made money from these bubbles, and there are no better investment targets other than AI. Everyone would rather have FOMO than watch themselves go short. Every day they watch people post orders to make money. Human weaknesses cannot be overcome. The history is always strikingly similar.
I've heard a saying a long time ago that you can't make money without a bubble. You can only change your destiny by embracing the bubble and participating in it. I hope everyone can dance in the bubble in the future while also falling back in time to feel safe and retreat bravely in the rapids.
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