Reigniting expectations for AI? Competition is entering a new level! Will AI play the leading role in 2024
They are the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom this year $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$has skyrocketed, and the total market value has exceeded 1.1 trillion dollars. However, the companyHow long can AI maintain its superiority and control the market is a major issueIt has become. Meanwhile, enthusiasm for AI is slowly cooling down. According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs, the percentage of S&P 500 companies that mentioned AI at financial results briefings for the 3rd quarter of '23 decreased from 34.5% in the previous quarter to 29.5%.
However, in the US stock market on Thursday,Expectations for AI technology are rekindledI did. Google announced Gemini, the biggest and strongest AI model in history5% or moreNoboru announced the Instinct MI300X with “the strongest computing power” $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Is10%It has skyrocketed recently. What is the main GPU of NVIDIA, which has almost a monopoly on the GPU marketNot only is it expensive, but the number of supplies is also quite limitedTherefore, AMD's MI300X is highly anticipated within the industry.If the MI300X can be adopted on a large scale, development costs for artificial intelligence models will be reduced, and competitive pressure against NVIDIA will also increaseIt is viewed as.
These are for Microsoft/OpenAI and NVIDIAThe challenger's strong counterattackSo, competition in the AI fieldWe have officially entered a new phaseIt also shows things. Google and AMD's strong performance raised new questions for global investors: Will artificial intelligence (AI), which has soared so high this year, continue to be the main investment player in 2024?
According to Google, GeminiUltra is a widely used benchmark that tests functions such as reading comprehension, programming, and visual understandingIt surpasses GPT-4It's called.
Gemini Ultra's MMLU (benchmark designed to comprehensively evaluate the comprehension and reasoning ability of machine learning models, particularly natural language processing models) score is”90%”. According to Google, the Gemini Ultra is the first model to surpass human experts in MMLU. What is the GPT-4 MMLU score87.3%It is. Additionally, Gemini Ultra surpasses GPT-4 in 30 of 32 academic benchmarks widely used in LLM research and development.
Gemini, which surpasses ChatGPT in many indicators including reading comprehension and programming, is an analyst at Wells Fargo saying “it will put an end to the discussion that Google is lagging behind in AI competition.”
BofA pointed out that “this shows that Google has strong artificial intelligence capabilities, and there is a possibility that it will have a positive impact on stock prices in the first half of next year.”
Many analysts have expressed a positive view that the introduction of Gemini will be a major innovation for Google. But in the long run, GoogleHow to commercialize GeminiWe need to find a way to show it.
AMD, which is one of NVIDIA's competitors, the two giants in the CPU and GPU industries, held an “AdvancingAI” presentation on Wednesday and announced the official release of the main AI GPU accelerator “MI300X,”The fierce competition between AMD and NVIDIA has expanded from the PC field to the AI fieldIt means. According to AMD test data, the overall performance of the MI300X is better than the NVIDIA H10060% higher.
CEO Su of the companyThe scale of the AI chip industryIt shows eye-popping predictions about, over the next 4 yearsOver 400 billion dollarsI said there is a possibility it will reach This is more than double the forecast announced by the company in August, and AHow rapidly expectations for I hardware are changingIt shows how it is being done.
According to AMD, the MI300X is based on a new architecture that realizes significant performance improvements. The biggest feature of AMD's new AI chip is 192GB of cutting-edge, high-performance HBM3 memory, which transfers data quickly,Compatible with larger AI models。
OpenAI, the world leader in artificial intelligence (AI), $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$It was announced at the AMD event that the Instinct MI300X would be adopted. So far, this isClear signs tech companies around the world are looking for alternatives to the expensive NVIDIA AI chip H100It is.
According to the latest report by research firm Omidia,meta、Microsoft、 $Oracle (ORCL.US)$What are the 3 companiesKey companies to buy NVIDIA's H100 GPUs in 2023that's it. Meta and Microsoft each purchased 150,000 H100 GPUs from NVIDIA this year,Top in number of purchasesI lined up.
Also,Pricing is also pretty importantThat's it. AMD did not disclose the price of the MI300X, butDefinitely cheaper than NVIDIA's flagship chip。
CEO Lisa Su says that in order for customers to be satisfied and buy AMD chips, it is necessary to lower purchase costs and operating costs than NVIDIA chips. It is said that NVIDIA GPU chips are sold for about 40,000 dollars each.
Wall Street analysts are generally AMD stocksBULLISHSo, according to data compiled by Seeking Alpha, what is the consensus rating for AMD“buy”What is the average target stock price132.24The dollar is the largest over the next 12 months13%The highest target stock price suggests a possibility of an increase$200。
Citi's analysis report predicts that AMD will eventually occupy 10% of the market.
While Bank of America points out that AMD has not clarified its future roadmap, NVIDIA has clarified a clear product development path and market entry tempo, and stated that current valuations are still attractive. NVIDIA investors don't need to worry too much.
NVIDIA announced astonishing results in its third quarter financial results. However, there was no agitation on Wall Street, and the stock price was approximately from the date the financial results were announced7%It's falling. As the market is trying to determine NVIDIA's long-term growth trajectory, this trendThere is a possibility that it will continue until most of 2024。
NVIDIA will face even more intense competition in 2024. It will be difficult to continue to achieve high growth like the previous year in 2024. Despite the astonishing performance indicators for the past two quarters, NVIDIA's stock price did not show a significant increase. This isMost of the current growth forecasts have been factored inIt suggests. Stock prices over the past 6 months$400 to $500It has been shifting between. Since the variety of NVIDIA is extremely high, it will be difficult to break out of this range in the short term.
In order to strengthen its market dominance, NVIDIA is also proceeding with the development of its own next-generation chips. The H100 will be replaced by the H200 announced last month in the first half of next year. The H200 can provide a new high-speed memory with an inference processing speed of “Llama 2,” which is about 2 times that of the H100. Furthermore, NVIDIA plans to announce a new processor architecture later this year.
Whether in semiconductors or chatbots, the battle for AI supremacy is not over yet. Competition will continue to be extremely fierce, and there is a possibility that multiple winners will be born.
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Source: Bloomberg, Omidia, AMD, Google
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Source: Bloomberg, Omidia, AMD, Google
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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181338057犬心久美子 : After all
️ tech companies are America 
economy![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
No matter what kettle they say![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
7 people in the wilderness 
... hehe![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
It's going to be towing
The Magnificent Seven
7 samurai
The turbulence seems to be going to be intense for a while, but it would be nice if the fuse towards vibrancy was lit again.