Amazon, Garmin, Walmart shares could benefit from the US$989 billion in US retail spend this festive season. JBH could benefit from US$7.5b in Black Friday sales

Both Australian and US share markets look set to close off November in record all-time high neighborhoods. The ASX200 $S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$ has risen 11% this year, and the S&P500 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ has gained 26%. But more gains could be ahead as, around this time of year, the economy is flush with cash, and stock markets usually rally in December and January.

Amazon (AMZN) $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ should be on your radar. It’s the world’s biggest e-commerce business, with over 300 million global users, most of those in the US. It started offering discounts on November 21 to gain market share and also started offering quicker deliveries, which should support its sales moving up. Each year Amazon usually sees holiday season revenue rise. Last year sales climbed to a record after gaining 14% year-over-year (YoY), which beat analysts’ forecasts. At a recent Amazon analyst call (Oct 31), it forecast fourth-quarter sales would rise 7–11%. The midpoint of that range means total sales will be US$185 billion. The takeaway here is that Amazon has been growing sales above retail industry sales. And if quarterly sales rise more than expected or at the upper end of the target, its shares will probably push up. Amazon’s shares are up 34% this year, including this month’s 8% gain.

With electronics brands and businesses to watch, keep an eye on sports watch business Garmin. Its shares are up 65% as the best-performing stock in US electronics. Garmin $Garmin (GRMN.US)$ slashed its price for its highest-end sports watches. It also recently reported record sales. I personally like Garmin watches, and most of my fitness friends use them as well, as their batteries last 14 days without a charge. And as a testament to Garmin sales growing, I am wearing a new Garmin watch that I bought from Garmin two weeks ago. Keep an eye on its shares. Although its shares are already up 65% this year, if it achieves sales growth of over 11% in Q4, you might expect its shares to continue to rise, with revenue for the full year ahead expected to grow 17% over the year ahead.

What about Walmart (WMT) $Walmart (WMT.US)$ the biggest physical retail store in the US? Its shares are on a tear, up 75% this year, making it its best return since 1999. It’s doing well as it has heavily cut costs and invested billions in automation over the last few years. That’s helped its supply chain to stock fresh produce at its stores, and AI and automation integration have improved delivery times to those who are increasingly buying Walmart goods online. Walmart has a strong balance sheet and low debt, so it should remain on your radar.

As for a local consumer spending beneficiary, JB Hi-Fi $JB Hi Fi Ltd (JBH.AU)$ could be it. JBH is a name most Aussies know. It’s the market leader in Australia’s consumer electronics retailing, and I guess you could say it operates a best-in-class global business model, similar to Costco. JBH shares have already risen 72% this year to a record high, and it’s expected to benefit from record Australian retail trade this festive season. This week, Macquarie and Bell Potter upgraded the stock, expecting more upside.

As for other stocks to watch this festive season? Keep an eye on payment processors and credit card giants, such as Visa (V) $Visa (V.US)$ and Mastercard (MA) $MasterCard (MA.US)$ with Mastercard expected to see greater revenue growth than Visa in the year ahead. Visa and Mastercard shares trade around record all-time highs, with credit card balances also being at a record high.

Also, keep an eye on Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) and payment transfer businesses: Block (SQ) $Block (SQ.US)$ and Zip (ZIP) $Zip Co Ltd (ZIP.AU)$. And watch the biggest shipping companies such as UPS (UPS) $United Parcel Service (UPS.US)$ and FedEx (FDX) $FedEx (FDX.US)$ as they could see greater volume in turnover.

And just lastly—let’s take a look at the most traded stocks week-on-week by moomoo investors and traders. Nvidia $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, Tesla $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ , and MicroStrategy $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ have taken the leading posts this week, with many investors taking profits off the table for the end of the month, which is quite normal before the new month turns over. Keep in mind Citi sees Nvidia shares rising about 27% in a month, perhaps ahead of Nvidia’s CEO's big keynote speech at CES 2025, or the Consumer Electronics Show, in Las Vegas on January 7–10.