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AMD (the company) is progressing well

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ I have just managed to listen to AMD's recorded earnings call today. Basically, there is nothing out of the ordinary. As I have mentioned before, Q1 & Q2 earnings would be just inline while sales ramp will be back-heavy, in H2. The disappointments in gaming & embedded segments are expected because Lisa Su has conveyed these in the last earnings call. Gaming slump is due to the end cycle of game consoles like Playstation & Xbox, & this will continue until new game consoles are being released.
Typically, the chips for consoles have very low margins. I remembered a few years ago when Playstation 5 & latest gen Xbox were new, AMD faced a dilemma - whether to allocate more chips for consoles vs ryzen/epyc cpus. AMD was supply-constrained at that time. Ryzen/epyc cpus had way higher margins but Sony & Microsoft were banging on AMD's door for more chips for their respective consoles. Personally, I prefer AMD to have capacity to produce more Ryzen/Epyc cpus than chips for consoles because if more of the latter are sold, higher gaming revenue will be offset by lower Client numbers & overall margin will be lower. Of course if supply is abundant, then let all segments flourish.
Data Centre (DC) revenue jumped 80% Y/Y. Lisa mentioned she expects DC to grow by double digit % sequentially. In the DC CPU space, AMD is taking market share from Intel. This will continue to grow because major data centre operators are in the process of replacing aging servers. Re AI GPU, AMD has sold $1b worth of MI300X in less than 2 quarters & Lisa has guided revenue to exceed $4b for 2024. Demand still outstrips supply - they would have sold more if they are not supply-constrained. AMD is currently working with more than 100 customers to bring MI300X to their data centres. This qualification process/period i.e. testing the products in data centres is typically quite long. The same happened for Epyc CPUs a few years back. So, this is to be expected & it will take many more quarters for wider adoption to take place.
Client segment has also improved over 80% Y/Y & AMD is also taking market share from Intel. I have seen some information that more manufacturers will focus product development on AMD platform because recent Intel parts have been problematic - there are reports of burnt CPUs & instability on notebook platforms. Intel is also struggling to replace the CPUs in a timely manner. Note that client segment is Intel's biggest revenue driver ($7.5b in recent quarter). The more AMD can gain market share, the $ will shift over to AMD's bank account.
Looking at DC & Client segments above, I m certain the stories abt China phasing out western cpus have been exaggerated & basically hit-pieces that get recycled every few weeks/mths. The impact should be low single % pt for AMD (on China govt & telecom). On this same note, even the US banning AMD's AI GPU to China story is of little concern because there isn't enough MI300 to meet existing demand. Those $5 - $10 share price drops when these news broke out were unwarranted. No analyst bothered to ask a question abt this. u can therefore ignore the retards who tried, are trying & will try to spread FUD.
Lastly, although the company is performing well, share price has taken a beating in recent weeks. My advice to investors is still to adopt a long term approach. I had a post recently sharing a video clip abt Michael Saylor giving his opinion of investing long term - he said if you have to look at the price fluctuations by the min, you will give yourself heart-attacks & if u then try to trade the stocks, u will likely lose $. I have been holding AMD for 10 years or so & have seen price slumps more times that I can count e.g. down 50%, 60%, etc. Doing nothing has been the better strategy for me. Just remember that nobody knows how the stock price will move in the short-term & it can be very detached from the company's actual performance. The fortune tellers here that often give out price predictions are as accurate as flipping a coin. If u have done your homework on the company (mgmt team, products, demand, competition, etc) & currently holding the stock, consider putting it aside, DCA (if u have spare cash) when it is down & come back at the end of the year. Lisa Su said the numbers will look much better in H2.
Good luck!
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  • Svetlana Polishuk : I can't wait until it skyrockets🚀

  • digimonX OP Svetlana Polishuk : It could be quite a few mths wait.  Not sure if nVidia's earnings can lift AI plays.  In its most recent earnings, nVidia single-handedly lifted the Nasdaq.  However, the 2 earnings calls before that, nVidia sold off after earnings.  So, it is anyone's guess.

    I think Nov may be the time stocks get a substantial lift.  From now till then, it could be a painful grind... unless we get a cooler-than-expected inflation print, we may get a rally.  Let's see.

    Good luck!

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