An opportunity to buy in a turbulent market? Market funding reversal! Bitcoin surpasses US super-large stock “M7”

Global stock markets are under significant downward pressure at the beginning of the fiscal season. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's election campaign and support for cryptocurrencies (virtual currency) greatly boosted Bitcoin. In the US stock market on the 24th, Bitcoin remained almost flat and remained at 65,900 dollars,The NASDAQ and S&P 500 stock price indicesRecord a significant decline since 2022/12I did it.

As a result, Bitcoin and global stock market movementsThere is a divergence. Over the past month, BitcoinAn increase of approximately 11%Whereas, what is the rate of increase in the global stock marketless than 2%It stayed at. Sean McNulty, head of the trading department at Arbelos Markets“Bitcoin is now becoming a symbol of Trump's victory. Meanwhile, when it comes to stocks, Trump trades don't have such clear winners and losers.” According to Bloomberg, the 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the MSCI World Stock IndexMinus 0.20It dropped to This is a very rare situation, and this indicator has usually shown positive values since 2020. When this index is plus 1, it indicates that the asset moves in the same direction, and when it is minus 1, it is moving in the opposite direction.

Mr. Trump expressed support for the crypto asset market in the early stages of the election campaign,”Let's make all the rest of the bitcoins made in the USIt has raised the slogan “, and has gained support from crypto asset enthusiasts.

According to reports, former US President Trump is scheduled to attend the Bitcoin 2024 conference and give a lecture. This tournament hosted by Bitcoin MagazineJuly 25 to 27It was held for 3 days, and the mediaThe biggest Bitcoin event of the yearI'm commenting on it. The market is watching Trump's attendance and speech. While the two major US political parties have a more friendly attitude towards Bitcoin, Bitcoin's”Global Financial Reserve Asset Theory” has also become a hot topic. Expectations are spreading in the market that Mr. Trump will bring a surprise to crypto asset investors with his speech at the conference.

IBIT has accumulated bitcoin holdings worth approximately 19 billion dollars since the beginning of the year, and Jeroen Blockalnd, founder of BlocklandSmartAsset Fund, said, “From the viewpoint of fund inflow,Bitcoin has become the second-largest asset class in the world this year” he said. “This is very surprising, and Bitcoin's size is only one-90th of the stock,” he added. The value of Bitcoin is still small compared to market value,Demand is very strongI pointed it out.

However, on the 25th, Bitcoin plummeted. Crypto Basis pointed out that the reason Bitcoin has fallen 4% or more in the past 48 hours is because selling pressure due to repayment of MT.Gox, which used to be the largest crypto asset exchange, offset the bullish momentum due to the introduction of Ethereum spot ETFs. What will happen in the future?

Amidst all this chaos, on the 24thBitcoin's hash ribbon indicator lights up a buy signalI did it. Bitcoin hash bands, which are the most promising indicators for Bitcoin purchases, were created by famous analyst Charles Edwards, and based on their reliabilityIt is widely regarded as a tool for predicting market increases。

Even from a historical perspective, this indicator7 out of 8 causes significant price increasesThus, it has become a reliable tool for investors. Hash ribbons measure the health of Bitcoin mining networks and are oftenSignificant bullish omensbecomes.

As liquidations increase rapidly, will this decline be a sign of buying opportunities, as the hash ribbon index suggests.

If you look at past data,Bitcoin's bull market is just beginningIt looks like that. What is BitcoinTransition in a 4-year cycleThere is a trend, and it can be divided into an uptrend and a downtrend. A normal 4-year cycle basically consists of a 3-year upward trend followed by a 1-year downward trend (bear market). So far, Bitcoin has had a cycle like thisIt has been repeated 4 times with astonishing accuracyIt is attracting market attention.

Other than playing card trades, what ifThe Federal Reserve announces rate cuts at a meeting in September or laterIf so, for the crypto asset marketGood materialIt's going to be. According to historical data, the Fed usually cuts interest ratesTrends that are boosting crypto assets such as BitcoinThere is. This is because interest rate cuts boost sentiment in the risk asset market, so crypto assets are favored by funds, and a moderate financial environment creates favorable conditions for financing and development of crypto asset projects. Furthermore,Crypto assets tend to show a negative correlation with the US dollarTherefore, there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, which will also boost crypto assets.

After Bitcoin was halved on 4/20, Bitcoin“Rapid adjustment” modeI entered. However, if you look at trends for 1 year after the end of the past 3 Bitcoin half-lives,Bitcoin tends to achieve a significant rise after going through an unstable period of about 4 months after its half-lifeThere is. If this trend continues,Bitcoin is likely to start rising at the end of summerThere is.