Analysis of US stock index and Apple

I think we can refer to the trend in July. The final bottom will end with a rapid decline. At this position, there is a high probability of another downward trilogy. Recently, institutions like to follow the downward trilogy. 9 I just walked through it on May 4th, but many people will forget the pain after the scar is healed.

This form of luring bulls is very deceptive, and often results in a double kill of both longs and shorts.

What’s next for AAPL?

In fact, if there is no increase at the press conference, that is basically bad news. This shows that the market has no expectations for the new machine. In the past month, the biggest driving force supporting AAPL’s stock price has been the imagination of Apple Intelligence. Now it can be said that there is no bright spot, so supplement A falling market is definitely a high probability event.

Huawei holds a new product launch conference today, and this should be the trigger. The remaining six giants rose well yesterday, but they were only good, because none of the giants stood firmly above the 5-day moving average, and none of the giants broke through Friday's high, indicating that the rebound here is just a dead cat jump. , it is possible that it will jump again tomorrow, and short-selling friends should be in a lot of pain. This is the price of short-selling U.S. stocks. Don’t short the super giants if you have nothing to do.

Back to the stock index, it is likely to fluctuate in the negative line of the downward trilogy tonight, but friends who short at this position should be careful, because the technical pattern of three trading days forms a triangle consolidation. The triangle is a state of long-short balance, which means that both long and short sides are watching and waiting for further market news. Although I predict that the index will fall to September 17, this is just my prediction. The final trend still depends on how the market chooses.

The market is consolidating here, obviously awaiting Wednesday's news. There are actually two major events on Wednesday. One is that CPI data will be released on Wednesday, and the other is the first TV debate between Trump and Harris on the evening of the 10th local time. These two things will definitely allow the market to choose a final direction, and then it depends on how the market performs.

We must remember the historical law, that is, U.S. stocks fluctuate greatly in September, often plummeting, but there are many ways to plummet. Now there are two trends in the market: ① There is good news on Wednesday, and the market directly stabilizes and rebounds, rising all the way until September 17, recovering all lost ground. After the interest rate cut, it starts a plunge mode in the second half of the month; ② There is bad news on Wednesday, and the market continues It plummeted all the way to September 17. After the interest rate cut, all the bad news was gone, and a rebound began in the second half of the month.