Giovanni Staunovo from UBS Group AG stated that any risk premium will only be sustained if there are disruptions to oil supply. He expects Brent to move above $80 a barrel due to OPEC+ production cuts keeping the oil market slightly undersupplied. Warren Patterson from ING Groep NV highlighted greater potential for disruptions and the need for vessels to divert, which will provide upside to oil prices. The bigger risk is if the conflict spreads and threatens flows coming out of the Persian Gulf. Vandana Hari from Vanda Insights mentioned that quite a bit of new risk premium has already been priced in but expects crude prices to stack on another dollar or two. She anticipates back-channel diplomacy efforts to prevent tensions from spiraling out of control. Robert Rennie from Westpac Banking Corp emphasized that markets have been too focused on rising global supply through 2023 while downplaying the sharp deterioration in the situation in the Red Sea during 2024. He suggested that West Texas Intermediate could rise above $75 a barrel and Brent could surpass $80 due to Houthi leaders' vow for retaliation against US attacks. Charu Chanana from Saxo Capital Markets pointed out that there are upside risks to oil prices if the conflict escalates, with increased volatility expected as oil markets continue assessing various catalysts.$Crude Oil Futures(AUG4)(CLmain.US)$$Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)$$Chevron(CVX.US)$$Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US)$$ZIM Integrated Shipping(ZIM.US)$
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