Analyzing closely: Nvidia is in a big fall! Is it fake? （Mandarin Version）
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ In 5 days, it fell from $140 to $126.4, down 10%. Can you fake it? Is it an opportunity or a trap?
Earlier, many members also asked me: After Nvidia shares are sold, it should skyrocket, so can I buy it?
I took everyone to find the answer from several angles:
1. Net profit forecast for the full year: Nvidia Q1 revenue was 26B, GAAP Gross Margin was 78.4%, net profit was 14.88B after subtracting operating expenses, etc.
Then in Q2, the company's forecast was 28B in revenue, GAAP Gross Margin was 74.8%, and operating expenses were 4B, and net profit would be 14.12B if the rest of the items were unchanged. Then net profit between quarters will not increase, or it may fall slightly. SO, WE ASSUME THAT THE COMPANY'S NET PROFIT GREW 5% PER QUARTER IN Q3 AND Q4, THEN THE NET PROFIT FOR THE WHOLE YEAR WOULD BE 60.14B.
2. Valuation of the company: At a share price of $126.4, the market capitalization of the company is 3.1T, then the PE will fall to 51.5.
Assuming the company's Q3, Q4 growth is the same as Q2, then the PE ratio will be higher. When investing in growth companies, you can refer to PEG, that is, if your PE is 51, then the company's net income grows 51%, then the PEG ratio is 1, in a reasonable share price range. Conversely, if the company's growth is 20%, then the PEG will be 2.55 (which is preferred). Of course, when reviewing, it is important to focus on growth in the next quarter and the coming year, not looking back at the past. But in the short term, the company's net profit in Q2 2024 to Q2 2025 cannot see if it will grow by more than 20%. (Including the company's own forecasts)
3. Opportunities and Risks:
First of all, now the company's products are ahead of all competitors, but in the end $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US$ Or when other companies can make better products, I don't know.
However, you can also read about Cerebras System. The only thing to know is that once there is an alternative, the price will be greatly affected.
Second, the company's products have disrupted the AI hardware industry, and the market doesn't know right now. EARLY ANALYZED BETS ARE ALREADY BOUGHT AT $200. By the time everyone is talking about Nvidia, it's time for investment to start declining.
Look at the picture, look at the data, the top echelons of companies, investments, and investment companies have all started to decline.
Thirdly, the demand for products is high, but the growth of several hundred bazens has already passed. The company is also full of orders, although it is also expanding its capacity, but it is inevitable that growth will slow down.
So is it possible for a company to continue to monopolize the market in 2-3 years, and its net profit will continue to climb upwards? Of course it is very possible! However, ask yourself if competitors come up with similar or better products, or if annual net profit growth stays between 10% and 15%, the share price will be subject to a big adjustment. After the company continues to monopolize, how much does the annual net profit have to grow before the stock price evaporates?
So, this time I did not buy Nvidia, but instead added another company X that will grow freely and undervalued, and it will benefit greatly from the demand for AI hardware, and the arrival of AI phones, computers, which is also the main beneficiary.
To know about this company X, I will analyze this company X in detail in the free public lesson, and in the open lesson I will go through 8 investment cases, detailing how I can filter out a good company in 7 steps and 4 big tricks. This set of methods allowed me to buy successfully for $77.32 in the past year $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ Buy GCT at $8.52, buy Meta at $101, buy PDD at $63, buy PDD, and more. You have successfully purchased 5 companies that have returned more than 100% in a year.
Click here for my free 100 minute open class:https://www.lazybearresearch.com/7stepsonlineworkshop/
After attending the open class, you can also join our Free Information Group, where I often share growth company and investment information. If you want to know other ai or other companies, feel free to leave a comment and I will pull out one of the analyzes.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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曾是金融科技公司CEO，35歲退休。主要投資在美国中國的成長型公司。投資組合：
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