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Palantir
-- 119.160 
Apollo: This Is a Soft Landing
Looking at the incoming data, the facts are the following:
1. The unempolyment rate declined in August, and looking at the establishment survey and the household survey, it is difficult to see strong signs of a slowdown in job creation.
2.Wage growth accelerated to 3.8% in August and wage growth remains sticky well above pre-pandemic levels.
3. Daily data for debit card transactions shows that consumer spending has been accelerating in recent weeks, driven by spending on clothing, food services and drinking places, sporting goods, and motor vehicle and parts dealers.
4. Weekly data for retail sales went up last week and remains solid.
5.jJoblessclaims have declined for several weeks.
6. Continuing claims have declined for several weeks.
7.Default rates and weekly bankruptcy filings are trending down.
8. The Fed’s weekly GDP model suggests GDP is 2.4% and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now says GDP this quarter will be 2.1%.
9. Weekly data for S&P 500 forward profit margins shows that profit margins are near all-time high levels.
10. The stock price of staffing firms is rebounding, which suggests that we could get a rebound in job openings
The bottom line is that the US economy is not in a recession, and there are no signs of a recession on the horizon.
All the picture below credit to Apollo Chief Economist - Torsten Slok
1. The unempolyment rate declined in August, and looking at the establishment survey and the household survey, it is difficult to see strong signs of a slowdown in job creation.
2.Wage growth accelerated to 3.8% in August and wage growth remains sticky well above pre-pandemic levels.
3. Daily data for debit card transactions shows that consumer spending has been accelerating in recent weeks, driven by spending on clothing, food services and drinking places, sporting goods, and motor vehicle and parts dealers.
4. Weekly data for retail sales went up last week and remains solid.
5.jJoblessclaims have declined for several weeks.
6. Continuing claims have declined for several weeks.
7.Default rates and weekly bankruptcy filings are trending down.
8. The Fed’s weekly GDP model suggests GDP is 2.4% and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now says GDP this quarter will be 2.1%.
9. Weekly data for S&P 500 forward profit margins shows that profit margins are near all-time high levels.
10. The stock price of staffing firms is rebounding, which suggests that we could get a rebound in job openings
The bottom line is that the US economy is not in a recession, and there are no signs of a recession on the horizon.
All the picture below credit to Apollo Chief Economist - Torsten Slok
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Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context,
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MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
scarlight : job creation doesn't mean a single thing if ghost jobs are everywhere. The hired number is the one that truly matters.
Divided Sky : Get your tin hat out. The doom brigade will be out soon
MonkeyGee : more like brace for landing
MonkeyGee scarlight : you also know that people who are unemployed drops off after 6 months. so the true unemployment number can be astronomical. Just go and look at the street!
stderr scarlight : If even ghosts are getting jobs, it can't be that bad
102180832 scarlight : Problem is Fed does not factor these in as it cannot be quantified in their monthly economics statistic . How would anyone get figures of actual hires headcount when 1 can work many multiple low paying jobs to met end meet . The Fed will not factors things they cannot understand and say lagging indicators . Then they cut .5 basis point
102180832 MonkeyGee : The us fed and China central bank does not care if you cannot find job after 6 months and stop finding . They only are you are unalived and do not consume resources to increase inflation or you have enough money to feed yourself on the first place . Like the youth unemployment in China . How are they tackling this ? Where is the golden age of China , when ai will come and take all the paying jobs ??
10baggerbamm MonkeyGee : this is absolutely correct after 6 months and when your benefits stop you're considered long-term unemployed and you are not factored into the unemployment rate.
RVLTN : All those numbers you reference though are proven fraud.
Now, what say you?