Apple (AAPL) Market Share and Shipment Number Translate To Revenue

Market is expecting Apple’s revenue at $84.419 billion and adjusted net income to be $20.67 billion. Adjusted earnings are likely to be $1.35 per share.

If we were to look at Apple focus in the second quarter, iPhone will be the main contributor to the quarterly earnings performance. Apple is estimating their sales to be approximately 44 million units, leading to $39.9 billion in revenue, surpassing the consensus of $38.9 billion.

Based on the Global Top 10 Best-selling smartphones as of Q2 2024, iphone models has occupied the top 3 spots with the version 15 and pretty similar to the same period Q2 in 2023 with iphone 14.

So the estimate sales number seem reasonable and might turned out better. But I will share the competition faced by Apple in some markets in later section.

During the recent WWDC, Apple has announced the Apple Intelligence, a personal intelligence system combining generative models with users’ personal context, has generated significant optimism about its prospects.

So this might be a game changer to the share for the next few quarters on the sales of smartphones, can the market share increase as a result?

Strong performance in China and other key regions is expected to contribute significantly to these numbers.

As seen in the below chart, we can see that APAC and Greater china are seeing better growth compared to same period Q2 in 2023. Other regions market have also achieved growth.

APAC and Greater China are seeing double-digit growth amidst recoveries.

Though the matured markets have seen double-digit recoveries, but we need to take note of the dip in the smartphone shipment globally, as seen in below chart, we can see that it is below Samsung and Xiaomi is catching up.

So if this trend continue, then the key markets (APAC and Greater China) share might be affected, unless iPhone 16 with AI capabilities could turn the tide.

I am expecting more details to be shared on the launch on iPhone 16 and which markets are Apple focusing?

The iPhone, Services, and Mac segments are expected to lead the charge, while the Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment might experience some decline.

I would think if Apple continue their development cycle for launching the iPhone 16 with AI enabled, price target of $300 should not be far to fetch.

Considering how Apple have risen since the launch from 14 to 15, market have been showing much confidence with their handset and also other products.

The concerns I would think is their capex investment in getting AI into the smartphone, because I read somewhere that OpenAI solution is not cheap to be used for integration.

The return on investment would be next, how long is Apple expected to make back the invested monies?

With this trillion market cap company, a 15% return on its stock price does seem to be low, so I am expecting more from Apple.

I have owned quite a number of Apple products throughout the years, the key is innovation that will make people to switch in or switch out. I have peers who has switched back to iPhone only 2 years to android.

So timing is still important for Apple, how innovative can Apple be moving forward?

If we looked at how the technical is telling us, it seems to give a BUY signal on the KDJ side, but MACD is also forming a potential bullish crossover.

If Apple could beat the shipment and sales figure, with plans on how iPhone 16 would be launched, then these might be possible.

Apple have been trying to make an uptrend, but with the competition from other smartphone makers, the space is pretty congested, good for consumer but not the makers.

So in order to really capture the market, timing is important, how fast can you adapt innovation into your product and services, might be something that would make or break a stock.

So I am confident on Apple to make the charge with iPhone, would you be confident of Apple upside post earnings?

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Apple revenue would beat estimate, shipment might not be ideal but sales and shipment forecast should be positive enough to create interest and positive sentiment.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.