Apple (AAPL) Q3 Global Smartphone Shipment To Translate To Better Revenue

Apple is expected to report a 5.7% increase in revenue to $94.56 billion from $89.5 billion a year ago. Apple have given a guidance on 01 Aug 2024 for the period ending 30 September for revenue to be at $93.973 billion.

The mean estimate for Apple earnings per share stands at $1.60.

Smartphone shipments grew by 5 percent year-on-year in Q3 2024, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth, according to the latest Canalys research. This surge is driven by resilient demand in emerging markets and the beginning of a replacement cycle in North America, China, and Europe.

Apple reached a significant milestone this quarter, increasing its market share to 18 percent, up from 17 percent in Q3 2023. Apple has shipped 56 million iPhones in the third quarter of 2024, marking a 3.5 percent increase compared to the 54.1 million units shipped during the same period in 2023, according to a new report by IDC. Despite this growth, Apple’s global smartphone market share remained relatively steady at 17.7 percent, compared to 17.8 percent last year.

Apple’s diversification strategy, which has helped reduce lead times, combined with its expanding Apple Intelligence services, has strengthened its position.

Apple’s success is driven by a market shift towards premium devices and the refresh cycle of devices purchased during the pandemic. In regions like North America and Europe, Apple continues to dominate, with the iPhone 16 expected to fuel further momentum in H1 2025.

Apple has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market. This is shown in Apple’s stable share price.

Apple's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year is also encouraging.

Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price. Apple have shown that it has always trade higher than the price target forecast.

So with the strong smartphone shipment in Q3 2024, I am expecting Apple to make a good upside move.

What is AAPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

Based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio which is 34.8 as compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.2x), we can see that Apple is good value.

This makes Apple stock something you can keep for long term investing.

If we looked at how Apple have been trading steadily above the short-term and long-term MA before its earnings, we could be seeing Apple investors adopting a wait and see attitude, but with a positive shipment of smartphone in Q3 2024 globally, we should see Apple investors helping Apple to make an upside move.

If we looked at the MACD, we could be seeing a reversal from the crossover, currently it is in bearish movement, and MTF is giving a strong uptrend.

I think we can watch how Apple would be trading on the price action and see if we can take a potential opportunity to buy this stock before its earnings today (30 Oct).

I am looking forward to the smartphone shipment number which is better than same period last year, can these numbers help Apple to post a better revenue, making the smartphone business the key revenue contributor.

I will be watching the trade today (30 Oct).

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Apple would be able to provide an earning surprise with strong Q3 smartphone shipment.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.