$Archer Aviation (ACHR.US)$ market cap 2.9 billion revenues...
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36 yrs in the trenches, raised 100mil for start ups, syndicate ipo's, yrs on trading desk mkt maker.
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Sailang Kitty : It’s called a “Death Valley” of new business where you gamble on speculative prospect as the start up spend a lot to create a new market. It’s definitely way overvalued now even in terms of gambling
woomoney : They have an order book worth $6Bil from United, Southwest, Future Flight Global ($580m) Japan Air/Sumitomo ($500m). The uncertainty is if and when they fulfill this orders so they can recognize the revenue.
104611710 woomoney : ^^ As what Woomoney said
10baggerbamm OP woomoney : Lucy had hundreds of millions of orders too and they were recognizing $1,000 checks deposits as revenue for the entire order and then reality setting fact is FAA hasn't approved anything it's a long ways away. drones are in limited use in certain areas from Amazon for delivery not Nationwide certainly not globally so there's a lot of hurdles in front of this company and all the others before they start generating any real revenue. in the meantime the valuations fucking asinine that's the truth whether you want to admit to it or not because it's being priced just like the coms were where their pricing 5 to 6 years into the future revenue assuming everything is perfect and saying well no it's fairly valued today because if they do this that and the other thing this is where they're going to get to. so when people talk about bubbles and the morons want to compare Nvidia to Cisco that's a real company making more money then virtually every other company around the world
10baggerbamm OP woomoney : oh by the way Boeing has an order book that's filled up for 10 years you don't see them trading five to six years forward valuations even though they're 100% pre-sold out for all their production capabilities do you
woomoney 10baggerbamm OP : Ha! maybe should get into the bowling business then! Just saying they've got more in the pipeline. These high flying (no pun intended) stocks trade at high future valuations for a reason, or at least we're all trying to make sense of it to make our own decisions, and hopefully make some money!
10baggerbamm OP woomoney : all right all right I fixed the fucking error, give me a break I was driving and I didn't read what I was talking into my phone so I got this Southern hick accent and my phone doesn't have the ability to understand inference at this point in time but the newer versions of the phones at some point we'll get it when you have an accent to understand what you're trying to say.
woomoney 10baggerbamm OP : I agree Lucid counting chickens before they hatched. But these are retail consumers. I'd like to think major airlines are different although they can change their minds too. I haven't read their contracts so have no idea what the commitments are. but yeah, lots of risk and hopium in these stocks.
10baggerbamm OP woomoney : you have to understand there was a time for several decades at airlines represented the worst investment you could possibly get involved with because of deregulation because of regulation because of unions.. and one of the biggest X factors is the price of fuel so fuel goes up they're profits tank. I know there's a couple of companies that are all competing for the potential market and there's about a dozen private companies that are doing the same thing right now to me I just look at FAA regulations as the limiting factor.
if they won't approve drones throughout the entire United States for deliveries if that's not something that is happening real time in all major cities and even going into rural areas then I don't see the quote unquote flying cars is a viable option and by the way Elon Musk this goes back years he said we have flying cars they're called airplanes.
additionally vertical takeoff aircraft have been around a long time and they have never really caught on even in the military there's been a lot of issues with crashes. so now you're going to talk about corporations flying executives to mitigate the time of a vehicle on the ground from one destination to the other okay you got a helicopter for that.
how long does it take before it ramps up and quite frankly I believe that Tesla robotaxis will be in effect long before these companies become viable.
woomoney 10baggerbamm OP : I'm not sure I'm following your point on the airlines. I do understand the economics and why they historically have been terrible investments, and that they are highly dependant on the cost of fuel. As I'm sure you know, eVTOLs are battery powered. Are you suggesting poor economies for battery powered vehicles? Also, this is a product manufacturer (eVTOL) not a transportation service company (airline) - the business models and operating expenses are different. Should be pointed out the US is not the only market and we're seeing other countries taking steps to allow eVOLs (UAE being one). And there has been good progress on US regulations. Yes, there are quite a few competitors in this nascent space. There's no denying that risk and a lot of hurdles still. Just like TSLA, you're hoping to pick the best of breed and ride it. It took TSLA a while to become profitable. I expect the same here. And recall how everyone laughed at TSLA shareholders and the valations for the longest time.
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