Are bear trends confirmed in January??
Good morning.
Bitcoin broke the range from 1/13 to 1/18 and began falling ⤵️ today at midnight on 1/19, and dropped to 40,600 dollars at one point. There are a lot of support prices around $40,000, so there is a rebound.
First, let's take a look back at the market environment from December to January.
- The Greed Sentiment Index is slowly declining. It has dropped to around 60 from the ceiling I put on at the beginning of December.
- Option volatility has also plummeted. It's down 20 from 1/7 with the treble on to around 58 now. Also, this 1/7 high is at the same level as the high price at the end of February last year, and it crashed around that point last year as well. Last year, the bottom hit 6 months later, so there is a possibility that it will continue to decline this time as well.
- If you look at the liquidation heatmap, there are a lot of positions packed per $33000. The area around 38000 is slightly hollow, so even if it is lowered from now on, I think that area will be a guide.
- The long positions of top traders remain high before. If this is not adjusted, I think there is a high possibility that it will continue to decline.
- On the other hand, the cumulative funding rate was adjusted quite a bit, and I think it was 30 to 70 or higher during peak times. There is almost no feeling of overheating.
- Finally, the price range you should be aware of is that technically the daily chart has gone into the clouds. The development is expected to take a few more days. There is a cloud resistance line around 39000, and there is a possibility that it will drop this far.
☆ Conclusions
There is a high possibility that Bitcoin's monthly chart will end on a negative line in January.
However, the next February, which ended with the January foot shadow line, is bound to rise.
If the anomaly above is true, I think we can look forward to February. The stock market is also being adjusted in the US market, so I think that will also have an impact.
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