Are prices rising due to worsening conditions in the Middle East and Ukraine and expectations for a soft landing? (1/2)
☆ Fundamental analysis
Prices rise due to expectations of a soft landing, but there is room for rekindling concerns about a hard landing due to future economic indicators.
Since there is a possibility that funds will flow into safe assets due to the worsening situation in the Middle East and Ukraine, there is room to reconsider positions after US economic indicators are announced. (Rating: 2.6/5)
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☆ US Economic Indicators
・ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index: Forecast 51.0 Result 51.4 (higher than forecast)
・Number of new unemployment insurance claims: Expected 0.24 million, result 0.233 million (lower than expected)
・Continued number of new unemployment insurance cases: Expected 1.87 million cases, result 1.875 million (lower than expected)
→Hard landing concerns changed to soft landing expectations, and risk assets in general switched to risk on
Since there is a possibility that it will fluctuate drastically due to future trends in economic indicators, it is a good idea to maintain positions without doing anything. (Rating: 2.5/5)
☆ Middle East Situation and WTI Crude Oil
・Iran, which supports Hamas, retaliates against Israel due to the death of the supreme leader of the Islamic organization Hamas
→WTI crude oil soared due to the tense situation in the Middle East. There is room for growth in conjunction with WTI crude oil. (Rating: 3.5/5)
☆ Situation in Ukraine
・The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a cross-border attack from the Ukrainian military. The largest ground battle since the start of the war in February 2022 began.
→Calm down and don't make a fidget. There is a big possibility that it will affect the market. However, there is a possibility that funds will flow into safe assets. (Rating: 2/5)
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