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Are the interim accounts of the five major trading companies still attractive to Mr. Buffett? Check from 5 perspectives

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moomooニュース日本株 wrote a column · Nov 6, 2023 20:14
5 major trading companies ( $Mitsubishi (8058.JP)$ $Mitsui (8031.JP)$ $ITOCHU (8001.JP)$ $Sumitomo (8053.JP)$ $Marubeni (8002.JP)$) financial results for the 2nd quarter (April-September) of the fiscal year ending 2024/3 have been completed. Although each company fell short of the previous fiscal year, which benefited from high resources, the entire company revised its full-year net profit forecast upward in response to the depreciation of the yen.
It has also become a topic of conversation that Warren Buffett invests in the five major trading companies, and stock prices have been strong this year. It is said that he is paying attention to whether the financial results for the second quarter are still attractive to Mr. Buffett as an investment targetProfitability, capital efficiency, portfolio diversification, dividend policies, undervaluationI will check it from the 5 points of view.
▲Overview of the five major trading companies when they announced financial results for the 2nd quarter of the fiscal year ending 2024/3
▲Overview of the five major trading companies when they announced financial results for the 2nd quarter of the fiscal year ending 2024/3
Profitability: Company-wide revisions to the full-year outlook due to the depreciation of the yen
Although each company's basic operating cash flow (basic profit cash flow that does not reflect lease liabilities), which reflects an increase or decrease in working capital and repayment of lease liabilities from cash flow due to sales activities, etc., has declined compared to the previous fiscal year, the results showed that profitability is still strong. Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. are expected to be 1 trillion yen per year, and Sumitomo Corporation and Marubeni are expected to be 500 billion yen.
In terms of full-year forecasts, each company revised their full-year net profit forecasts upward due to the depreciation of the yen. Until the first quarter, each company had an estimated exchange rate of 1 dollar = 130 yen,In response to the current depreciation of the yen, Mitsui & Co., Ltd. changed 1 dollar = 145 yen, and the other 4 companies changed to 1 dollar = 140 yenI did it.
Capital efficiency: maintaining a “passing score” above 10%
Although ROE has declined as profits have decreased compared to the previous fiscal year,Each company is at a pace above 10% per yearIt has become, and it seems like a passing score. Mitsubishi Corporation has the lowest figure at this stage, but it has announced a full-year ROE forecast of 11.2%.
Portfolio diversity: Each company's dependence on resources is declining
There was also a reaction from the high level of resources in the previous fiscal year, and each company declined the ratio of resources and energy to net profit.
ITOCHU Corporation, which has the highest ratio in the non-resource sector, anticipates a record high net profit of 620 billion yen for the full year in the non-resources sector.
Mitsubishi Corporation has the lowest ratio in the non-resource sector, but portfolio replacement is progressing smoothly. The company targets about 80 companies to be replaced by the end of fiscal year 24, and it is said that there are plans to sell about 40 companies by the 2nd quarter.
Shareholder returns: All companies increase dividends; 3 companies add dividends
Since Marubeni decided to increase dividends, the entire company will increase dividends from the previous fiscal year. The three companies, Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsui & Co., and Sumitomo Corporation, raised their dividend increases further in line with the announcement of financial results for the 2nd quarter.
Also, Mitsubishi Corporation has announced a three-part stock split and share buyback, and Mitsui & Co., ITOCHU Corporation, and Marubeni have announced stock buybacks, and each company has launched measures that are conscious of shareholders.
Undervaluation: Even though the investment advantage fades due to rising stock prices, is it still a “buy”?
Since the beginning of this year, the stock prices of each company have risen significantly, to close to 40% for ITOCHU Corporation and over 60% for Mitsubishi Corporation. Although investment benefits have faded due to rising stock prices, PER is still 15 times lower than the guideline for listed companies, and there may also be room for “buying” using incentives, etc.
ー MooMoo News Mark
Source: Each company's website, moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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