Is it time for a risk-on in USA stocks? The recession indicator 'Sarm Rule' with a 100% accuracy rate is declining! Will the buying spree continue in lagging semiconductor stocks?
Accuracy rate of 100% for predicting the USA economic recessionのSarm economic recession indicator(※, 'same rules' indicator)Decreased from 0.57 in August to 0.50 in September.September's data released on October 4thimproved to 4.1% due toThis improvement.Ease worries about economic downturnOctober 4th saw a risk-on sentiment with rising stock and falling bond prices. Notably,The rise of semiconductor stocks that had been lagging behind was prominent.。
(※The Sam Recession Indicator was devised by Mr. Sam, a former economist at the FRB, and is known as the "Sam Rule". If the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds the minimum of the 3-month moving average of the past 12 months by 0.50 percentage points, it suggests an entry into a recession. The past accuracy rate of predicting recessions was 100%. It is noteworthy that the announcement of the US unemployment rate is made on the first Friday of every month.)
When we look at the year-to-date changes in the SAM Economic Downturn Indicator and the SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index), we can see that after the SAM Economic Downturn Indicator first exceeded 0.4 in June this year, the SOX Index made adjustments. Caution about reaching 0.50 the following month (caution about entering an economic downturn) became one of the reasons for selling semiconductor stocks. Subsequently, in July, the SAM Economic Downturn Indicator reached 0.53, and when it exceeded the significant level of 0.50, the SOX Index further adjusted.
Subsequently, the Saam Economic Recession Index for August rose to 0.57. Concerns about entering an economic recession have increased further, but the resilience of the US economy was evident from other economic indicators. In mid-September, the Federal Reserve announced a significant 0.5% cut in the policy interest rate (FF rate). Expectations of recession avoidance due to the rate cut increased, and the SOX index rebounded. With the improvement in the unemployment rate on October 4, causing the Saam Economic Recession Index to drop to 0.50, the SOX index, which had lagged behind, rose more than the major indices.
Semiconductor stocks tend to be sensitive to economic sentiment. Currently, with the decline in the Saam Economic Recession Index and better-than-expected employment statistics, there is growing confidence in a soft landing in the market. Given the movements on the 4th, semiconductor stocks that have been lagging behind may receive more attention.
9月の失業率と雇用統計が発表された10月4日、SOX指数構成銘柄の上昇率TOP10銘柄は下記の通りとなった。
(Additionally, on the 4th, HonHai, the world's largest electronic equipment contract manufacturing company (a Taiwanese company), showed revenue growth exceeding expectations, which also became a positive factor for semiconductor and AI-related stocks.)
これまで競合のエヌビディアに出遅れている $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ が4.9％上昇し、4日は最も買われた。AMDは上値抵抗線を突破しており、ゴールデンクロス形成が間近となっているようだ。
次いで、年初から比較的堅調だった $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ が2.8％上昇した。年初来騰落率で首位の $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Ranked eighth in the 4-day rate of increase. However, it is once again attempting to break through the resistance line.
Overall, The retreat of concerns about the US recession is expected to provide short-term support for semiconductor stocks.In order to rise further, the upcoming corporate earnings starting this week will be crucial.The content of the company's earnings will become important.It is said to become important.
During the last earnings season, there was some concern about a recession, whereas this time the recession concerns are diminishing. Investor sentiment towards performance may not be as harsh as last time. On the other hand, the Samu economic downturn indicator remains at 0.5, so excessive complacency like full-risk on might still be risky. It would be necessary to keep an eye not only on corporate performance but also on the economic trends in the USA.
Market analyst Julie, written on October 7, 24.
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Bloomberg
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Bloomberg
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Bull・Bear : Thank you for the wonderful explanation and analysis. If you have your own hp inc, please share it.
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