Do you still deny BTC?
BTC surpasses $81,000!
Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $81,000 and has become a hot topic in various places.
Challenges like this only capture everyone's interest when BTC is strong, so I took the opportunity to quickly jot down some thoughts in my busy schedule (laughs).
Challenges like this only capture everyone's interest when BTC is strong, so I took the opportunity to quickly jot down some thoughts in my busy schedule (laughs).
While writing this, it has already exceeded $81,000 and continues to rise.
Do you all own BTC?
■Bitcoin and virtual currencies should be considered separately.
First of all, I would like to make it clear that this is a discussion about Bitcoin, not a discussion about virtual currencies as a whole. Many elderly individuals who appear in the media as self-proclaimed financial experts often present themselves this way.Bitcoin = Virtual currency = Altcoinsand they are fundamentally different.
Bitcoin and other altcoins (altcoins)are completely on a different level.Let's understand that the dimensions are entirely different, although this would lead to a vast number of articles, so I will skip over. Please just remember that they are different dimensions.
Therefore.What is important is blockchain, and if we look at it from the perspective of monetary value, it is Bitcoin.That's what it means.
Ethereum is also important, but it's best to focus first on Bitcoin (referred to as BTC) alone.
Ethereum is also important, but it's best to focus first on Bitcoin (referred to as BTC) alone.
It is important that blockchain technology and its fundamental currency Bitcoin are crucial, and it is fine to ignore other things such as NFTs, altcoins, DeFi, and crypto games.
※This is the perspective of individual investors who are busy with their main business of investing in stocks, bonds, gold, etc. It doesn't mean that NFTs or DeFi are meaningless. (Crypto games currently do not have much meaning, lol)
※This is the perspective of individual investors who are busy with their main business of investing in stocks, bonds, gold, etc. It doesn't mean that NFTs or DeFi are meaningless. (Crypto games currently do not have much meaning, lol)
■Why do people have a negative impression of BTC and cryptocurrencies?
Although this has been a long introduction, if you already hold about 5% of your investment assets in Bitcoin, that's splendid.
Splendid investors with foresight and a willingness to study.I think.
Splendid investors with foresight and a willingness to study.I think.
一方で、年配の有識者の意見を聞いてBTCにネガティブな感情をもって投資しない・・というのは非常にもったいないと思いますし、BTCに限らず成功しない大多数の投資家ということになると私は思っています。
もちろんご自身で勉強された結果、BTC否定派なのであればいいと思います。ただ、私がリアルでお会いした人、もしくは知人でBTC否定派は100％勉強していない人でした。
ブロックチェーンも仮想通貨もよく分からない、何となく怖い、ボラが高い、税金が高い・・程度の認識でした。
AIのFeloに最新のネット動向から仮想通貨に否定的な意見を考察してもらうと以下の順位でした。
１：高いボラティリティとリスク
2: Risks of fraud and hacking
3: Uncertainty of regulations
4: Speculative nature
5: Lack of knowledge and misconceptions
6: Tax burden
2: Risks of fraud and hacking
3: Uncertainty of regulations
4: Speculative nature
5: Lack of knowledge and misconceptions
6: Tax burden
Let's look at them in order...
■1: High volatility and risk
That's certainly true.
Because the price fluctuations are intense, if you approach it with the sense of swing investing in normal individual stocks, you might end up in trouble. Therefore, it's just a matter of not forcing yourself to follow that volatility.
Because the price fluctuations are intense, if you approach it with the sense of swing investing in normal individual stocks, you might end up in trouble. Therefore, it's just a matter of not forcing yourself to follow that volatility.
In other words,RSP and diversified investmentIt is.
Because not only does it drop, but as in this case, it often skyrockets,It's sufficient to steadily contributeThat's all.
The mystery is why there is such strong opposition to consistently contributing to Orkan and completely rejecting BTC. It's because precisely due to the high volatility that contributions work relatively well, so simply rejecting it based on high volatility alone may not be suitable for investors.
If your investment strategy is to avoid all high-volatility assets and never use leverage, I think that's fine. So-called60-40 portfolioDiversifying between stocks and bonds in a 60-40 portfolio, focusing on quite stable quality stocks is solid and excellent.
For individuals of this type, BTC is like oil and water, so there is no need to force assets into BTC.
However, for Japanese individuals heavily invested in QQQ, SOXL, and ORCAN, while also rejecting BTC, it can be somewhat dangerous. They are heavily weighted in high-volatility dollar assets,not anticipating a downturn in dollar assets..
What's even riskier is if someone is heavily into FX trading yet denies BTC due to its high volatility. It can be quite nonsensical to reject BTC while actively engaging in FX trading.
Rather than denying BTC as a high-volatility risk, it is important to understand that relying entirely on government-issued paper currency is actually much higher risk. Short-term price movements can be greatly offset by regular investments, but the risk of government-issued paper currency assets cannot be offset without holding other assets to adjust the ratio.
Being fixated on short-term price movement risks prevents one from recognizing the real risks.
■2: Risks of fraud and hacking
In the case of BTC, unfortunately, this is currently the biggest risk, but it is expected to improve over time. The question is how soon that will happen.
Another concern is the risk of errors during transfers and movements.
BTC is transferred directly on a wallet-by-wallet basis, but if you enter the wrong wallet address, the money disappears into the void of space-time and cannot be recovered. Unlike traditional currency, where banks can usually help recover it, with cryptocurrencies, since there is no bank in between, no one will assist.
BTC is transferred directly on a wallet-by-wallet basis, but if you enter the wrong wallet address, the money disappears into the void of space-time and cannot be recovered. Unlike traditional currency, where banks can usually help recover it, with cryptocurrencies, since there is no bank in between, no one will assist.
However, as AI continues to advance, these issues will likely be resolved.
However, as AI continues to advance, these issues will likely be resolved.
Speaking of which, there are people who bring up extreme arguments such as AI itself being hacked or AI gaining self-awareness, which can be troublesome (laughs), but even in the present day, our lives have drastically changed due to the advancement of computers and the widespread use of SNS. Of course, there are social issues such as computer crimes and SNS becoming breeding grounds for crime, yet mankind has been evolving by mastering convenient tools.
Do you completely avoid watching X or YouTube just because someone says that SNS has become a breeding ground for crime?
If X or YouTube were taken away, would it not only affect your investments but also your daily life? (laughs)
If X or YouTube were taken away, would it not only affect your investments but also your daily life? (laughs)
Individuals who only focus on extreme negative aspects and always think in a negative way have never become successful or pioneers in their careers or investments, even when looking back at history.
Even when it comes to investments, scams and hacking are common occurrences in today's stock market, bonds, and real estate.
It's not just BTC that is dangerous, but those who are unaware of why it is risky and how to deal with it are ultimately just lacking the effort to study.
■ 3: Uncertainty of regulations
Similar to the previous point, focusing only on the negative aspects.
Technology and services utilizing blockchain technology are rapidly advancing, with BTC at its core. Amid the emergence of increasingly convenient services and products, the speed of growth surpasses that of regulation.
A recent good example is the birth of BTC ETF.
Until recently, in the USA where concerns about the decline of the dollar were raised, it was said that BTC futures and ETFs would not be approved. However, countries and corporations worldwide have increased their holdings of BTC as the asset to hold after the dollar and gold, leading to a complete change in the situation.
As a result, the approval for BTC ETF in the USA led to a sudden influx of investment funds from individuals aged 60 and above in the USA.
Elderly Americans who were previously skeptical suddenly shifted their focus to the asset value of BTC with the introduction of ETFs. While many people in their 40s and older in Japan still remain skeptical about BTC, the USA was similar until recently.
If one constantly fears and denies only negative things about regulations, they will miss out on riding the wave of upward surges and will be unable to accept the surprising relaxation of regulations. By only being cautious about the uncertainty of regulations at this stage, one may miss even good surprises inherent in the current early stage.
■4: Speculative nature
Since it is similar to 1, it will be skipped.
■5: Lack of knowledge and misunderstanding
I've written it thoroughly.
In short, have you studied enough to fully deny the highly efficient BTC?
In short, have you studied enough to fully deny the highly efficient BTC?
If you haven't, just ridicule and ride along.
However, if you ride full force and get thrown off, you'll die, so it's okay to buy only 5% of your assets...
However, if you ride full force and get thrown off, you'll die, so it's okay to buy only 5% of your assets...
Why don't you have this level of flexibility... that's the point.
My investment motto is "Buy a little of what you don't understand!" I've had experiences where I incurred some losses and ran away like with "6 Asset Allocation Investment Funds," "Hifumi Trust," "Palladium," etc. (laughs)
Buy a little, if it doesn't work out, run away immediately, if it seems promising, buy more... But even if it yields satisfactory results, if you deny it because you don't understand and pretend not to look, and if you bad-mouth it more when it rises... you'll never be a winner for life.
Understanding the basics of investors' palm reading is essential.
■ Tax burden
It's a headache because Japan is an extremely disappointing country. However, many people haven't thoroughly researched this.
For those of you who think it's ridiculous that up to 50% of your cryptocurrency could be taken away as tax...
How much is your annual income in ten thousand yen?
How much is your annual income in ten thousand yen?
As it stands, income from cryptocurrency is simply miscellaneous income, subject to progressive taxation when combined with all income.
Although I don't want to do the calculations, to be honest, if you realize a profit of several million yen with an annual income of over 10 million yen, "taxes are high."
Although I don't want to do the calculations, to be honest, if you realize a profit of several million yen with an annual income of over 10 million yen, "taxes are high."
However, if you achieve a profit of less than 1 million yen per year with an annual income of around 5 million yen, it is not much different from stocks or FX.
Stocks aside, it's quite ridiculous if those who are involved in FX or futures and are negative about bitcoin for tax reasons.
Stocks aside, it's quite ridiculous if those who are involved in FX or futures and are negative about bitcoin for tax reasons.
Certainly, the current tax system is crazy, but I think it will change within a few years due to lobbying by securities firms and exchanges. Probably, bitcoin will fall under the same framework as derivatives.
Currently, as mentioned in 1, it doesn't matter if you're accumulating. It is taxable when profits are realized.
Furthermore, if BTC ETFs are approved in Japan, indirect investment in bitcoin as a stock will be possible. If that happens, the price of bitcoin is likely to continue to rise.
Some people say, 'Well, if BTC ETFs are approved, I would buy...'
Well, that's fine, but we don't know when it will happen, and by that time, if the price has gone up even more and then rises further upon ETF approval, you would be buying at a higher price.
Well, that's fine, but we don't know when it will happen, and by that time, if the price has gone up even more and then rises further upon ETF approval, you would be buying at a higher price.
Of course, you may be able to buy at a lower price if it drops from here, but by the time Japan, which is already two weeks late in the crypto game, gets serious, the price of bitcoin will have shifted.
It's like saying 'I'll get serious from tomorrow!' and being left behind by everyone around you as they move ahead.
Therefore, unless you are a millionaire, there's really not much need to worry about taxes for those who still do not have bitcoin.
It's just an excuse for not buying.
It's just an excuse for not buying.
I have written various things, but many bitcoin skeptics are also skeptics of AI and part of the AI bubble, always negative about the latest technology and changes in the times. However, the world is not all black and white.
I believe that it is now the time for skeptics to flexibly add about 10% bitcoin component to their portfolios.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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ピャラボニ : As there are no knowledgeable people around, I would like to ask...
Is the recent rise in the price of bitcoin due to a cyclical event related to the halving period?
Or is it because America is expecting bitcoin to become a national asset (meaning a large purchase)?
Could it be both?
I feel that the latter is too opaque in terms of its specific details and feasibility, leading to excessive expectations.
爆益男 ピャラボニ : I think the current rise is a typical movement for a halving period. While I don't believe that Trump's bitcoin bill has no influence, I think it will take some time before it seriously affects the price.
ピャラボニ 爆益男 : Thank you so much
!!
I recently started, didn't really understand well, and was anxious!
When I woke up in the morning, I was even more surprised by the sudden rise
It's really amazing momentum
オプション投資ラボ OP ピャラボニ : Already received comments from the profit-making man, but I'll just add a little.
Currently, I think that short-term factors, such as the wave of rising (expectations) after the halving period finally arrived and the expectation of the Trump administration's cryptocurrency promotion, overlapped with another medium to long-term factor and caused overheating.
The first medium- to long-term factor is that after the approval of the BTC ETF in the USA, funds from the senior generation in the USA have been intermittently flowing in. This will be a major trend. People in their 60s and older who previously dismissed BTC as suspicious now see the ETF and think they might be in trouble if they don't invest long-term, so investment funds have started flowing in.
The other factor is the evolution of generative AI, which has made it possible to predict a sudden improvement in the usability, frequency of use, and demand for inconvenient cryptocurrencies. With the use of generative AI, the near future where sending money and requesting work in various countries around the world based on cryptocurrency has suddenly become a reality.
In this scenario, BTC becomes the foundation of various cryptocurrencies. If you have BTC, you can immediately convert it to any cryptocurrency (altcoin), so along with the advancement and penetration of generative AI, the actual demand for BTC is increasing.
Therefore, countries that want to escape the dominance of the dollar and large companies that do not want to miss out on future business opportunities have increased their purchases of BTC.
Just like with gold, if there is no sudden increase in the demand for long-term holdings, it won't be easy to see a sudden surge.
So, even though the price movements are intense, I feel that instead of being misled by short-term movements, it's important to investigate why BTC is rising so much and perhaps feel the "risk of not having it."
ピャラボニ オプション投資ラボ OP : Thank you very much for the detailed explanation!!
The risk of not having a shareholding is exactly that aspect, isn't it?