NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 144.470 TSLA
Tesla
-- 410.440 CRNC
Cerence
-- 19.330 PLTR
Palantir
-- 79.890 MSTR
MicroStrategy
-- 339.660 Arm's focus and the future of Nvidia.
The development of the AI market and technological progress are obvious to all, and many new technologies are being rapidly realized in the rapid development of AI hardware! The large-scale production of AI models has led to an almost unlimited demand for GPU hardware, and many companies may want to invest in GPU development! However, they are unable to form a competitive relationship with Nvidia! The reason is that even if they develop and produce GPUs, they cannot achieve the cost-effectiveness of Nvidia's products of the same level! They may even be quickly eliminated! The investment will be lost! Large-scale procurement of GPUs is similar to computer upgrades! It requires continuous adaptation to more advanced AI models in the future through larger-scale and higher-end new GPUs! This is a huge process! After a few years, the currently expensive high-end GPUs will be quickly eliminated! This process and speed will be much faster than Moore's Law for CPUs!
The problem is, AMD's GPU research and development is far behind nvidia! Even with short-term large-scale adoption, the pace of being rapidly eliminated is fast! Purchasing should not be based on boosting performance!
Another unicorn is brewing! Currently, the companies that have independent GPU research and patents are Arm. The problem is that this company is a partial patent development company! For example, if this company has the ability to develop and produce a complete set of autos, but only focuses on the core automotive engines and energy technology development, and sells patents to auto manufacturers for profit. Softbank's acquisition of Arm has not been involved in the development of Arm in the GPU field! It is estimated that this year Softbank will reduce its holding in Arm, using the funds from Arm's shareholding reduction to establish a new GPU research and development company on par with nvidia! If you understand the information about TSMC building a factory in Japan, you will find that it is highly probable that Softbank will enter the GPU research and manufacturing field! In other words, Arm has complete GPU technology and development capabilities! This is a behemoth company that should have a market cap in trillions of dollars! But it will have to make way for Softbank's new company! So there are four companies that need to be highly focused on from 2024 to 2026: Arm, Softbank, TSMC Japan factory, and the new GPU company established by Softbank! The latter two are in the planning and implementation stages. Once capital is available, they will be completed quickly! The core issue is the extent of Softbank's shareholding reduction in Arm after March! This is the core issue! This is also a test of Softbank's intelligence and capability in capital operation! Too much reduction will lower the stock price! Too high a reduction will lower the total market cap! Softbank needs to gradually release stocks reasonably to continuously boost the stock price and obtain the funds needed for the new GPU company's establishment and operation. If everything goes smoothly, the new GPU company will rank fourth, and possibly second or third, only behind nvidia, AMD, and Intel! After all, Softbank does not have the restrictions on Chinese AI chips by the USA! Japan can fill the gap! Therefore, in a sense, Arm will decide whether Softbank will become the holder of two companies with market caps exceeding $1 trillion and $300 billion, respectively, in the next two years, or if it's just a pipe dream! The story all begins with Softbank's share reduction in Arm this year! When Arm's stock price skyrockets, that's when the story begins! The amount of GPU development funds Softbank needs will determine the extent to which Arm's price will rise! Because the guarantee for the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital raised by Softbank comes from Arm.
So the reason why Arm's stock price has not been rising is here! It is not allowed to have significant fluctuations before all planning and layout begins! This does not align with the interests! Because the fluctuation range is determined by the capital needs, not earnings expectations! In the endless background of AI development, the quantity and capability of GPUs have become the core of determining the future national strategic power! So there cannot be just one nvidia! Although nvidia is the best, the market needs partners! This is the background of Softbank's planning for the new GPU company! Softbank is a capital operation company! If Softbank reduces its holding in Arm, but the new GPU company cannot be established, it doesn't matter, because Softbank's reduction will strengthen the cooperation with other companies along with Arm! Don't forget that many of Arm's GPU technologies also need to cooperate with nvidia! We will notice many large companies accelerating their cooperation with Arm, which is the most important company after nvidia and Chatgpt! The story of AI is different in sequence and impact for these three companies!
We do not rule out that under the development of AI technology, the research and development of GPUs will begin to have the capability to develop models on their own! Perhaps this is just a story for the future! Perhaps there will be other emerging GPU geniuses who will develop new technologies to advance AI further!
In short, Arm's story has just begun when Softbank reduces its holdings! The current stock price cannot reflect its value! Any price below 150 yuan is acceptable!
Will Arm forge ahead to become a new behemoth, or will it be attacked by capital and become ordinary trash! Everything depends on the result of Softbank's capital operation!
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72753806 : WithArmJust go to the bank for stock loans; there is no need to reduce your holdings.
Brooks Falls : The SoftBank Blind Cat experienced a sharp rise in arms like a dead mouse. You can really admire him manipulating stock prices like this