As anti-coup forces intensify new offensive in the north, “new possibilities for Myanmar”

Fighting is intensifying in an area spanning 280 kilometers (174 miles) from Mandalay to Lashio, where the military's northeastern regional headquarters is located.

On June 25, an explosion occurred in a town called Mogok in the Mandalay region of central Myanmar, and Fra Sue and her family took refuge in a nearby trench. Then, for three days, they waited underground for the fighting to subside, but the situation only worsened.

According to the United Nations, since new fighting broke out in the Mandalay region and northern Shan State in late June, Fra Sue is one of approximately 0.04 million1,000 people who have been driven from their hometown, and most of them 3 million people have been driven from their hometowns from Myanmar since the 2021 military coup.

According to data compiled by the Thai Student Union (TSU), which is a community-based humanitarian organization, there is a possibility that the number of people evacuated due to recent fighting in northern Shan State and the Mandalay region is close to 0.1 million. TSU also revealed that between June 15 and July 18, 141 citizens were killed and another 100 were injured.

This battle marks the second stage of a broader offensive against the military, known as “Operation 1027,” which began in October last year. In the first phase, a coalition of ethnic armed groups occupied strategic territory in eastern Shan State along the border with China, making it one of the most dramatic advances for anti-military groups since the coup.

Currently, resistance forces are fighting to control an area spanning 280 kilometers (174 miles) from Mandalay to Lashio, which is the military's northeastern regional headquarters.

So far, forces led by the Taan National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Force (MNDAA), and the Mandalay People's Defense Force (PDF) have claimed control over Mogok, the northern towns of Shan State, and Nong Kio, which are known for ruby mines.

On 7/25, the MNDAA claimed that they had taken control of Lashio, but it seems that the battle for complete control of the same city and the town of Kyokume continues even now.

According to Nathan Luther, a geospatial analyst at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy Research, there is a possibility that Operation 1027 will cross the Ayeyarwaddy River from the Chinese border and establish a continuous control route for resistance forces through the center of central Myanmar.

He cautioned that while this offensive shows PDF's advanced cooperation with ethnic armed groups formed after the coup, its further success largely depends on whether ethnic armed groups in northern Shan State (one of Myanmar's most powerful organizations) can peacefully resolve issues surrounding power and influence between organizations.

“I think one of the biggest issues with this operation is how things will unfold,” Loser said.