ASML disappointing

- Q3 bookings of €2.63B (vs. est. of €5.39B)
- '25 sales at €30-35B (vs. est. of €35.94B)

What's going on?

1. "competitive foundry dynamic" aka $Intel (INTC.US)$ cut capex

2. "Limited capacity additions in memory" aka $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ & SK Hynix are converting existing overcapacity for HBM

3. This is on top of China restrictions (the only booming market for equipment)

People miss that semi-equipment follows its own cycle and is facing some headwinds after a strong capex cycle '21-23.

AI is a tailwind, BUT the market is big in $ and not in capex. Even $TSM sees a muted capex cycle.

Investors may be selling the wrong stocks today, creating attractive opportunities...here is a lay of the land 👇