$ASML disappointing results 😱
- Q3 bookings of €2.63B (vs. est. of €5.39B)
- '25 sales at €30-35B (vs. est. of €35.94B)
What's going on?
1. "competitive foundry dynamic" aka $INTC cut capex
2. "Limited capacity additions in memory" aka $MU & SK Hynix are converting existing overcapacity for HBM
3. This is on top of China restrictions (the only booming market for equipment)
People miss that semi-equipment follows its own cycle and is facing some headwinds after a strong capex cycle '21-23.
AI is a tailwind, BUT the market is big in $ and not in capex. Even $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ sees a muted capex cycle.
Investors may be selling the wrong stocks today, creating attractive opportunities...here is a lay of the land 👇
- '25 sales at €30-35B (vs. est. of €35.94B)
What's going on?
1. "competitive foundry dynamic" aka $INTC cut capex
2. "Limited capacity additions in memory" aka $MU & SK Hynix are converting existing overcapacity for HBM
3. This is on top of China restrictions (the only booming market for equipment)
People miss that semi-equipment follows its own cycle and is facing some headwinds after a strong capex cycle '21-23.
AI is a tailwind, BUT the market is big in $ and not in capex. Even $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ sees a muted capex cycle.
Investors may be selling the wrong stocks today, creating attractive opportunities...here is a lay of the land 👇
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