Market outlook in August Exhaustion from buying and real estate bubble

As expected, weak.

・Discussions on the US-China real estate bubble are resurfacing. Interest rate cuts as a deflation countermeasure and support in 20 sectors are like a drop in the bucket.

・Chinese government suspends the publication of 'youth unemployment rate' data... Will they no longer announce it?

・Meanwhile, both new and continuing unemployment claims in the USA are decreasing. Strong⇒Continued rate hikes⇒Stock market decline

・Tough for small-cap and growth stocks

・Some signs of a bottom in the energy sector

・Reduced long-only positions in large tech companies

・Individual investors are being targeted by market manipulators

The impact of the real estate market downturn in China may be caused by the following factors:

- Investors' risk aversion due to the instability of the real estate market. Poor performance of WTI, LME copper.

Companies with high dependence on China

1. Automobile Industry: Japanese auto manufacturers have a large market share in China.

2. Electronic Equipment Industry: Japanese electronic equipment and semiconductor manufacturers have strong demand in the Chinese market.

3. Chemical Industry: Japanese chemical manufacturers provide various products in the Chinese market.

4. Food Industry: Japanese food manufacturers and farm product processors have high demand in the Chinese market.

The unemployment rate among young people in China significantly exceeds 20%, making it difficult to report the exact numbers.