Aussie Special: Tracking the 2024 US Presidential Race

With former President Donald Trump's support rate increasing post-debate, the healthcare sector is witnessing a surge in certain stocks. Biotech investors are eyeing a favorable environment ahead. Historical data from the previous four presidential elections (2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016) reveals a pattern of biotechnology stocks underperforming in the lead-up to election day. On average, the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index posted a return of -6.4% during the two months preceding these elections.

Back in September 2020, following a chaotic first presidential debate between Trump and Biden, the Australian stock market experienced a significant drop, losing around $40 billion in market value due to heightened investor concerns about the U.S. election outcome. Despite initial gains from positive Chinese economic data, all ASX sectors saw heavy losses, with ASX 200 down 2.3% and oil stocks leading the decline. Fast forward to 2024, Biden’s focus on renewable energy while Trump’s stance on deregulation and tax cuts could reinvigorate interest in traditional energy and financial sectors.

Investors are reacting to the Trump Biden debate, which to me, felt like two old men were angry at bingo night at the old folks home.

Yesterday (Jun 28), users said the market would react to last night's debate with new highs, and so far they are right on target!

Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a joint letter to warn of the economic risks they see in a potential second term of Donald Trump, including reheated inflation.

Economists and Wall Street analysts alike have predicted that any or all of those proposals could reinflate prices, which remain vulnerable despite cooling slightly in recent months.

The upcoming U.S. election is also expected to be extraordinary. Factors like inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks have already heightened uncertainties for the latter half of the year. Adding the election variable into the mix significantly increases the likelihood of stock market volatility.

While the election could bring significant market volatility, investors should remember that historically, the U.S. stock market performs well during election years. The volatility from September to November tends to be higher than in other years, so there is no need to overreact.

Bought last Fri, where I also told everyone to buy in, and told everyone it is gonna moon soon, as I see BBs buying. Well.. I guess $11k usd is not bad tor 2 days of work? lol.  

thanks for the puts Donny Diaper