BABA's 4QFY24 Revenue Expected to Rise 5% YoY, CICC Predicts
CICC predicts Alibaba Group's 4QFY24 revenue to increase by 5% YoY to RMB219.2 billion, in line with market expectations.
Adjusted EBITA forecasted to decline 4% YoY to RMB24.3 billion, while non-GAAP net profit estimated at RMB28.1 billion.
YoY decreases expected in EBITAs for Taobao Tmall Group and Alibaba overall due to increased investments in overseas ventures and Cainiao $Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Limited (810537.HK)$ .
Alibaba's domestic retail GMV projected to rise 6% YoY in 4QFY24, driven by market share goals and strong online consumption trends.
Customer management revenue (CMR) forecasted to grow by 3.5% YoY in the last quarter, with stabilizing monetization rates anticipated.
Revised down revenue projections for FY25 and FY26 by 2% each due to weaker-than-expected non-core business performance.
Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 lowered by 8% and 13% respectively, mainly due to increased investments and business losses.
CICC maintains target prices of US$112 for US shares $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ and HK$109 for H-shares $BABA-SW (09988.HK)$ , with an Outperform rating for both.
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