[Bank of Japan decision meeting preview] Removal of negative interest rates may lead to the first interest rate hike in 17 years, and it may affect the Bank of Japan's holdings of ETFs equivalent to 7% of the Japanese stocks.
The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy decision meeting on the 18th and 19th. The decision will be announced around noon on the 19th, and a press conference by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is expected to be held in the afternoon. The biggest focus is whether they will proceed with the removal of the negative interest rate policy that has been in place since February 2016.Whether or not the Bank of Japan will proceed with the removal of the negative interest rate policy that has been in place since February 2016.That is the main question.
If the Bank of Japan implements an interest rate hike,It will be the first policy change in 17 years since February 2007.In the first round of collective bargaining on the 15th, which President Ueda called a major point, the spring labor offensive is averaging in the 5% range for the first time in 33 years.In addition, the BOJ is strongly pushing for an interest rate increase.Furthermore, it is highly likely that the BOJ will lift the financial easing measures other than negative interest rates and move towards normalizing its monetary policy.For the stock market, there is also interest in whether the BOJ will stop buying ETFs.In addition, with the successive positive comments from President Ueda, expectations for a rate hike in March have sharply increased.In addition, the BOJ is strongly pushing for an interest rate increase.Furthermore, it is highly likely that the BOJ will lift the financial easing measures other than negative interest rates and move towards normalizing its monetary policy.
If the Bank of Japan implements an interest rate hike,It will be the first policy change in 17 years since February 2007.In the first round of collective bargaining on the 15th, which President Ueda called a major point, the spring labor offensive is averaging in the 5% range for the first time in 33 years.In addition, the BOJ is strongly pushing for an interest rate increase.Furthermore, it is highly likely that the BOJ will lift the financial easing measures other than negative interest rates and move towards normalizing its monetary policy.For the stock market, there is also interest in whether the BOJ will stop buying ETFs.In addition, with the successive positive comments from President Ueda, expectations for a rate hike in March have sharply increased.In addition, the BOJ is strongly pushing for an interest rate increase.Furthermore, it is highly likely that the BOJ will lift the financial easing measures other than negative interest rates and move towards normalizing its monetary policy.
At the time of the January decision-making meeting, there was an intention to confirm the impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake, and the monetary easing policy was maintained. On the other hand, the "main opinions" included a considerable number of positive views on policy changes, such as "the requirements for policy modification, including the removal of negative interest rates, are being met" and "it is necessary to intensify discussions on the exit."
At the time of the January decision-making meeting, the market was dominated by the view that the removal of negative interest rates would be at the April decision-making meeting, when the new economic and price outlook (Outlook Report) for the fiscal year 2026 would be announced, rather than at the March decision-making meeting.
However, Governor Ueda stated at the budget committee of the House of Representatives on February 22 that "the state is not deflation but inflation," and as positive comments on achieving the 2% price stability target were made by multiple policy board members after that,There was an increasing expectation of a rate hike in March in the market. According to a survey of 28 BOJ watchers conducted by Nikkei QUICK from March 4th to 6th, the expected timing for the removal of the negative interest rates was 8 people (29%) in March and 17 people (61%) in April (Nikkei Newspaper dated March 12th). In contrast, a survey of 50 economists conducted by Bloomberg from 5th to 11th showed 38% expecting March and 54% expecting April (Bloomberg dated March 12th).
Already,According to Jiji Press on the 14th, the BOJ has "entered into coordination in the direction of lifting the negative interest rates."。
植田総裁が13日の参院予算委員会で、春闘の動向が「大きなポイントになる」と述べたことで、焦点は大手企業の賃上げ回答に絞られる形になった。連合が15日に公表した春闘の第1回回答集計分（771組合）の賃上げ率の加重平均は5.28％となり、前年の第1回集計の3.80％を1.48ポイント上回った（このうち300人未満の中小企業358組合の平均は4.42％）。過去の最終集計との比較では、1991年の5.66％以来、33年ぶりの5％台となっており、日銀の政策変更を強力に後押ししそうだ。これまでの報道では、トヨタ自動車など多くの大手企業は23年を上回る賃上げ要求に満額回答しており、中には日本製鉄のように、組合の要求を上回る回答をした企業もある。13日付の日本経済新聞は、「異次元賃上げ」との表現も用いた。
With the increasing momentum of speculation about a rate hike in March, the market is...In addition to lifting negative interest rates, there are also expectations of normalizing monetary policy.According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun dated March 14, in the March decision-making meeting, in addition to discussing the lifting of negative interest rates, there are also discussions on...The Japan Economic Daily reported that in addition to ending purchases of risk assets such as ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and REITs (real estate investment trusts)...Purchases of ETFs and other assets began in 2010 as part of the "comprehensive monetary easing policy" and...Currently, the Bank of Japan is reported to hold an estimated 70 trillion yen of ETFs, which is equivalent to approximately 7% of domestic stocks.If the policy shifts, there is likely to be a discussion on the Bank of Japan's exit strategy for its holdings.
In the stock market, it is anticipated that stock prices will continue to rise even after the rate hike has already been priced in. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 14th reported, "There is a growing trend to factor in the lifting of the negative interest rate policy in the decision meeting." (Takahiko Masuzawa, Head of Trading, Equity Division, Philip Securities), and "It is expected that the market reaction will be already priced in." (Yunosuke Ikeda, Chief Equity Strategist, Nomura Securities), and introduced analyses such as these. Furthermore, based on Mr. Ikeda's comment from Nomura in the same newspaper, "It is highly likely that the Bank of Japan's policy stance becoming clear will further encourage overseas investors to buy Japanese stocks."Even if the negative interest rate is lifted, if the view that the Bank of Japan will not embark on consecutive rate hikes gains strength, it will create a sense of comfort in the stock market.It is reported that there are many voices saying so.
Bloomberg on the 15th also introduces a comment from Yutaka Bamba, Head of Alpha Operations at BlackRock Japan, saying that "the rate hikes will be gradual, and the accommodative monetary environment will be maintained, which is expected to support stock prices".Interest rates rise, dependent on the USD/JPY exchange rate?Introduced is a comment from "".
On the other hand,Regarding interest rates, we assume a price decrease (interest rates rise).There are voices from investors. The interest rate on 10-year government bonds was 0.688% on February 26, but rose to the late 0.7% range on March 15. Bloomberg on the 13th introduced a comment from Mark Douding, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of RBC BlueBay Asset Management, saying, "We are shorting Japanese government bonds and finding a great opportunity in this trade."On the other hand, the movement of foreign exchange rates has become intense. From March 6th to 11th, the yen appreciated, progressing from the 150 yen range to the 146 yen range and then reversing, returning to the mid-148 yen range on the 15th. Behind this, there was speculation about the delay in the rate cut in the United States. On the 14th, Ed Alfseini, interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, pointed out in Bloomberg, "The Bank of Japan's liftoff has long been factored in. This has not been particularly beneficial for the yen."In summary, it is not the Bank of Japan that holds the fate of the yen, but it is in the hands of the United States' risk, as pointed out by Ed Alfseini."
On the other hand, the movement of foreign exchange rates has become intense. From March 6th to 11th, the yen appreciated, progressing from the 150 yen range to the 146 yen range and then reversing, returning to the mid-148 yen range on the 15th. Behind this, there was speculation about the delay in the rate cut in the United States. On the 14th, Ed Alfseini, interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, pointed out in Bloomberg, "The Bank of Japan's liftoff has long been factored in. This has not been particularly beneficial for the yen."On the other hand, the movement of foreign exchange rates has become intense. From March 6th to 11th, the yen appreciated, progressing from the 150 yen range to the 146 yen range and then reversing, returning to the mid-148 yen range on the 15th. Behind this, there was speculation about the delay in the rate cut in the United States. On the 14th, Ed Alfseini, interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, pointed out in Bloomberg, "The Bank of Japan's liftoff has long been factored in. This has not been particularly beneficial for the yen."On the other hand, the movement of foreign exchange rates has become intense. From March 6th to 11th, the yen appreciated, progressing from the 150 yen range to the 146 yen range and then reversing, returning to the mid-148 yen range on the 15th. Behind this, there was speculation about the delay in the rate cut in the United States. On the 14th, Ed Alfseini, interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, pointed out in Bloomberg, "The Bank of Japan's liftoff has long been factored in. This has not been particularly beneficial for the yen."On the other hand, the movement of foreign exchange rates has become intense. From March 6th to 11th, the yen appreciated, progressing from the 150 yen range to the 146 yen range and then reversing, returning to the mid-148 yen range on the 15th. Behind this, there was speculation about the delay in the rate cut in the United States. On the 14th, Ed Alfseini, interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, pointed out in Bloomberg, "The Bank of Japan's liftoff has long been factored in. This has not been particularly beneficial for the yen."There are many views that if the Bank of Japan removes the negative interest rate, the yen will gain momentum, while there are also concerns that if the policy remains in place, the yen will depreciate significantly, as reported by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 13th.
- moomoo News Mark
Source: Bank of Japan HP, Rengo HP, Bloomberg, Nikkei newspaper, Jiji Press, moomoo
Source: Bank of Japan HP, Rengo HP, Bloomberg, Nikkei newspaper, Jiji Press, moomoo
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よよよよよよ : The economy is still bad
183527510 : Small to medium enterprises
on holidays
There is no increase in salary.
Even though my salary hasn't gone up
Prices are only rising rapidly.
Purring at home
There is no choice but to save money by doing it.
182351352 : As for current inflation, central banks in each country implemented monetary easing in a different dimension due to measures against the COVID-19 pandemic, large funds first flowed into futures and skyrocketed through HF, and in addition, stagnation in logistics was added, and prices rose. Inflation is not in line with the normal flow of the business cycle. Japan is poor in natural resources, so in order to acquire foreign currency, it is essential to revive the export industry based on the domestic return of production bases that create jobs lost due to the appreciation of the yen, so the depreciation of the yen will be a tailwind. If domestic employment is created and stabilized, the declining birthrate will naturally be resolved. The government's fiscal transfers and tax cuts are essential for cost bush inflation due to depreciation of the yen, but the budget disbursed by the United States, such as fiscal transfers exceeding 30 trillion yen to other countries and doubling defense costs, has increased like hot water, but policies to protect the disposable income of ordinary people have hardly begun. US bonds of 280 billion dollars owned by the government, which were due for redemption in August last year, have not even been paid interest, let alone redeemed. And they are being made to buy more. How many Japanese people are aware of this fact?
カレー党 : inflation? deflation?
Iki-chan, aren't you looking at the trees and not looking at the forest?
Neither the Diet nor the institutions that support it can control the Nippon Maru with just numbers
Less than 10% of people are said to be rich in the world, and the income of 10 million people in Japan is 10%. That kind of person is trying to influence the economy
80% of Japanese companies are small to medium enterprises. It also has little to do with the excited bear.
huh? I'm a person who has had almost no experience with Bear in a decent company for decades...
As mentioned in the comedy mentioned above, “I have no choice but to spend money by purring at home on my days off.”
This is the reality, isn't it?
Do people who are picked up in luxury Toyota cars have the power to see the forest?
The members of parliament are unreliable, so I would like to look forward to the opinions of experts, but it will be decided by next week's remarks.
Cancellation is necessary, but if we don't see the forest, Japan's loan bankrupts will have an impact on the world.
If you can't do it, the people you want to look forward to are disappointed
Stock prices have also been anticipated
But the Nippon Maru's mirai changes depending on how you do it
ひきゅう : It's just a matter of showing America, isn't it?
Aiyaya : A change this time is almost equal to no change![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")