Bank stocks in Japan and the US

　This year, I've seen TV news and newspaper headlines many times that interest rates are rising in both Japan and the US. There are short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates for “interest rates.”

　Short-term interest rates are interest rates determined by the monetary authorities of each country, so they are called “policy interest rates.” On the other hand, real interest rates on government bonds have a strong impact on long-term interest rates. As long-term interest rates rise, loan interest rates when buying a car or real estate increase, so it has a direct impact on the lives of general consumers. If loan interest rates that are formed when buying a car or real estate go up, it becomes difficult to buy real estate such as a car or house. Therefore, a rise in long-term interest rates will be a headwind against business results for industries related to automobiles and real estate.

　On the other hand, for banks that lend money, it has been said that rising interest rates will boost profits. First, let's take a look at the stock prices of American megabanks.

　Figure 1 is a stock price chart of the American megabank “Bank of America.” The left end of the chart shows stock prices up to the most recent in January 2022. Note that the yellow curve in the chart is a 200-day moving average. TV programs that cover Japanese and American stock investments often use the 200-day line to explain the direction of stock prices. Many investors are watching a chart showing the 200-day moving average through a television screen.

　Now, let's go back to Figure 1 on the Bankame chart. Stock prices have also continued to drop, haven't they? Long-term moving averages move far behind actual stock price movements, but the 200-day line has continued to decline since mid-2022. Interest rates in the US have risen significantly in both the short and long term. However, there are also effects of rising crude oil prices, successive wars, and wars, and at least until now, rising interest rates have not boosted bank stock prices. Furthermore, it seems that the collapse of American mid-sized banks and the fact that major rating companies lowered bank ratings also had an impact on stock prices.

　　Next, let's take a look at the American city chart (Figure 2). Shares of this company also fell sharply in the first half of 2022, and then they were struggling. Since September of this year, it has begun to decline again, hasn't it?

　So what about JPMorgan Chase, an American megabank? Similar to other megabanks, the stock price of this bank continued to decline in 2022, but when the yellow arrow for December of last year was attached to the center of the chart, the 200-day moving average rose to the right, and at one point it rose to a point close to last year's high of 160.8 dollars. Subsequent price movements were poor, and in October of this year, when the blue circle on the right side of the chart was attached, it fell and broke through the 200-day line, but stock prices recovered in a V shape thereafter. (Figure 3)

　In other words, it seems that the stock price of JPMorgan Chase is recovering quickly in American megabanks, and the stock prices of the other two banks have yet to recover.

　During the US fiscal period, megabanks announce financial results relatively early. However, as you all know, megabanks are late in announcing financial results in Japan.

　Figure 4 is the stock price chart of Resona Holdings (8308), and Figure 5 is the stock price chart of Mitsubishi UFJ (8306). The 200-day moving average is rising to the right on both sides, and recent stock prices have fallen to a place close to the moving average. Resona announced financial results today (11/10), and consolidated ordinary income for the 2nd quarter (April-9) of the fiscal year ending March 31, '24 was 114.4 billion yen, down 1.1% from the same period last year, and consolidated ordinary income for the fiscal year ending July-9 (2Q), which is the result of the last 3 months, was 67.6 billion yen, down 2.3% from the same period last year. (Source: MINKABU THE INFONOID, Inc.) Mitsubishi UFJ's financial results announcement is scheduled for November 14, so I'm paying attention.