The Bear Hunting Diary needs more accurate long-range shooting even with limited ammunition.
During Tuesday's trading session, all kinds of analysis are like hindsight geniuses too busy to predict tomorrow's opening. Destroy it. Ruin it. Be indifferent.
Learn from the lesson, cut losses to pay tuition, not afraid of losses. As a student, I am mainly here to learn English and by the way, solve math problems.
In TSM and SOXX, moomoo both judged it as a bullish channel. Misunderstanding it as a call was due to lack of experience, can't complain about moomoo. Lesson from SMH, looking at RSI+BOLL all sounded the alarm, should have taken profits and pulled out 1/3 on Wednesday last week, the subsequent days of rise were just minor oscillations, not worth following.
VOO guessed half right, feeling both joy and regret: closing on Sunday guessed to sell and reduce by 1/4, the result was correct. Should guess again at Monday's closing, today on Tuesday's trading session feels a bit passive. Since there is gradually a higher guessing success rate now, should continue to reduce holdings until reaching a neutral position.
QQQ guessed wrong, moomoo's analysis clearly sounded the alarm with RSI at Monday's closing: the fast line soared above 80 for two days, the centerline just crossed 80 (alert at 75), the slow line rose close to 80, but turned a blind eye, still looking at the bullish sentiment. Of course, taking profits and exiting should be done while in the bullish sentiment! The bullish sentiment indicator should not be used at the moment of escaping the peak! Even Robinhood's hourly analysis is clearer, with the RSI14 indicator hitting 100 and still not running away, waiting to cut the vegetables?
DIA guessed wrong, barely got half right. The Monday opening at nine o'clock proves that the RSI exploded on Sunday and the shareholding was correct. Checking the RSI at Monday's closing, it continues to explode, clearly indicating the need to continue to take profits and exit. How come yesterday's guess was still maintaining the oscillation with slightly increased holdings despite the need to exit with profits? As soon as Tuesday opened, there was a MACD death cross. This loss is all self-inflicted!
IWM guessed wrong and don't know if it's lucky! Before the market opened, profit should have been taken and exited. The RSI14 had already exceeded 75 by the close on Monday, why increase holdings slightly? It's just luck that it hasn't dropped at this moment today; it's only considered lucky if it holds until the close without falling.
SOXX guessed wrong, the RSI14 had already crossed the 75 safety zone by the close on Monday. How could such a loud alarm be ignored? The opportunity to escape the peak on the last day was wasted! According to the RSI14 at the close on Monday had reached 83, exceeding the orange safety zone of 80, as well as crossing 75, better run away now! Also, at the market opening, it breached the upper BOLL boundary and closed in an upward trend nearing the upper boundary, another sign to escape the peak! Monday guessed correctly, the recent two-day winning rate is half and half, so-so.
TSM has been wrong for the past two days. It breached the upper BOLL boundary at the market opening on Monday, maintaining the approach at the close, signaling an exit, RSI14 at the close was at 82, still need to exit! No need to look at the others. Initially correctly assessed to reduce holdings by a third, why lose confidence and cancel later? Observing the market on Sunday should have shown approaching the upper BOLL boundary, RSI14 soaring to 82 higher than 75, why no action was taken then. TSM leverage is 1 share, dare not act recklessly, is it for practicing leverage that safety production was ignored?
AVGO has been wrong for four consecutive days. By the close last Tuesday, RSI14 had breached 80, this was the alarm, on Wednesday's market opening day, when the K-line crossed the upper BOLL boundary, it should have taken profits and exited, and waited with a neutral position, must not always think about winning. With 1 share leverage in hand, full of confidence? It's self-inflicted.
MSTR has been wrong for three days, by Thursday's close, the K-line approached the lower BOLL boundary, indicating a halt to the decline, and above the MACD water level, the red column is nearing its end. Furthermore, RSI14 at only about 55 is very safe, Friday indeed soared and all the way approached the upper BOLL boundary, by the close RSI14 had surpassed 80, time to take profit and exit. On Monday, Tuesday indeed fell again, is it possible that having leverage in hand delayed judgment?
NVDA has been wrong for three days. By Thursday's close was the time to take profit and exit, RSI14 crossed 72, the last four-hour K-line near the close entered and touched the 10-day moving average, indicating a balanced confrontation in the hourly market, should have taken profit and exited the market on Thursday, watching the last chance for both long and short on Friday, Friday is the last day to take profit and exit, a bit of gambling on Friday. There's no need to cling to the fight, in such a Friday gold trap, if there's a profit, you must profit and exit again, because an obvious drop is just around the corner the next day, quickly use cash to find the next stock opportunity.
PLTR has been wrong for several days. Last Tuesday was predictable to rise, the RSI14 reached 72 at the close, also with bullish expectations, on Wednesday continued to rise, by the closing hour, the slowest line of MOO reached 74.2, the fast and medium lines had long exceeded 75, at this moment, calmly take profits and exit retaining 60% of the position. If the next day on Thursday rises again, then take profits and exit keeping 50%, the later days like Friday are all junk time filled with uncertainty and volatility.
Summary: Confidence comes from having a mathematical approach, for example, determining the evacuation atmosphere priority sequence: first look at RSI 14, the orange zone 75 boundary; if unsure, then look at MOO's RSI (6, 14, 24) fast line not exceeding the safe line of 75, then look at the BOLL boundary line without approaching (measure the proximity scale for the trend in the last three days), if it exceeds the 20-day moving average, the excess portion cannot occupy 10% of the daily closing K-line, then come the 20 (or 25-day) and various moving averages sequence, followed by the trumpet opening degree, then the MACD dual lines trend and momentum above the water line, and whether there should be a crossover, followed by the KDJ intersection point position trending at 80. TODO In the future, use TV, FUTU programming to assist in market observation.
After all these are judged, it is unlikely to lose too badly. There will be another half year of bull market bottoming out, so seize the opportunity to guess the questions.
"Just as Noah built the ark to prepare for the flood, we must also be prepared to face the storm of the market."
**Appendix:**
- [MOO ETF Forecast & Price Targets](https://www.tipranks.com/etf/moo/forecast)
- [Semiconductor stocks swing: What's next?](https://www.moomoo.com/community/discussion/semiconductor-stocks-swing-what-s-next-1425539089)
- [SOXX ETF Stock Price, Quote & Overview](Visit the following link: https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxx/)
Sources
[1] Forecast and Price Targets for the moo etf - TipRanks https://www.tipranks.com/etf/moo/forecast
[2] Semiconductor stocks swing: What's next? - moomoo Community https://www.moomoo.com/community/discussion/semiconductor-stocks-swing-what-s-next-1425539089
[3] Stock Price, Quote and Overview of the SOXX etf - Stock Analysis https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxx/
[4] List of Holdings for SOXX - iShares Semiconductor etf - Analysis of Stocks https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxx/holdings/
[5] SOXX Price & Analysis - iShares Semiconductor etf - TipRanks https://www.tipranks.com/etf/soxx
[6] iShares Semiconductor etf (SOXX) - Kavout https://www.kavout.com/etfs/soxx/ishares-semiconductor-etf
[7] Stock Price and News for iShares Semiconductor etf (SOXX) - moomoo https://www.moomoo.com/stock/SOXX-US
[8] The latest stock news and headlines of VanEck Agribusiness ETF (moo) ... https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MOO/news/?ltr=1
Learn from the lesson, cut losses to pay tuition, not afraid of losses. As a student, I am mainly here to learn English and by the way, solve math problems.
In TSM and SOXX, moomoo both judged it as a bullish channel. Misunderstanding it as a call was due to lack of experience, can't complain about moomoo. Lesson from SMH, looking at RSI+BOLL all sounded the alarm, should have taken profits and pulled out 1/3 on Wednesday last week, the subsequent days of rise were just minor oscillations, not worth following.
VOO guessed half right, feeling both joy and regret: closing on Sunday guessed to sell and reduce by 1/4, the result was correct. Should guess again at Monday's closing, today on Tuesday's trading session feels a bit passive. Since there is gradually a higher guessing success rate now, should continue to reduce holdings until reaching a neutral position.
QQQ guessed wrong, moomoo's analysis clearly sounded the alarm with RSI at Monday's closing: the fast line soared above 80 for two days, the centerline just crossed 80 (alert at 75), the slow line rose close to 80, but turned a blind eye, still looking at the bullish sentiment. Of course, taking profits and exiting should be done while in the bullish sentiment! The bullish sentiment indicator should not be used at the moment of escaping the peak! Even Robinhood's hourly analysis is clearer, with the RSI14 indicator hitting 100 and still not running away, waiting to cut the vegetables?
DIA guessed wrong, barely got half right. The Monday opening at nine o'clock proves that the RSI exploded on Sunday and the shareholding was correct. Checking the RSI at Monday's closing, it continues to explode, clearly indicating the need to continue to take profits and exit. How come yesterday's guess was still maintaining the oscillation with slightly increased holdings despite the need to exit with profits? As soon as Tuesday opened, there was a MACD death cross. This loss is all self-inflicted!
IWM guessed wrong and don't know if it's lucky! Before the market opened, profit should have been taken and exited. The RSI14 had already exceeded 75 by the close on Monday, why increase holdings slightly? It's just luck that it hasn't dropped at this moment today; it's only considered lucky if it holds until the close without falling.
SOXX guessed wrong, the RSI14 had already crossed the 75 safety zone by the close on Monday. How could such a loud alarm be ignored? The opportunity to escape the peak on the last day was wasted! According to the RSI14 at the close on Monday had reached 83, exceeding the orange safety zone of 80, as well as crossing 75, better run away now! Also, at the market opening, it breached the upper BOLL boundary and closed in an upward trend nearing the upper boundary, another sign to escape the peak! Monday guessed correctly, the recent two-day winning rate is half and half, so-so.
TSM has been wrong for the past two days. It breached the upper BOLL boundary at the market opening on Monday, maintaining the approach at the close, signaling an exit, RSI14 at the close was at 82, still need to exit! No need to look at the others. Initially correctly assessed to reduce holdings by a third, why lose confidence and cancel later? Observing the market on Sunday should have shown approaching the upper BOLL boundary, RSI14 soaring to 82 higher than 75, why no action was taken then. TSM leverage is 1 share, dare not act recklessly, is it for practicing leverage that safety production was ignored?
AVGO has been wrong for four consecutive days. By the close last Tuesday, RSI14 had breached 80, this was the alarm, on Wednesday's market opening day, when the K-line crossed the upper BOLL boundary, it should have taken profits and exited, and waited with a neutral position, must not always think about winning. With 1 share leverage in hand, full of confidence? It's self-inflicted.
MSTR has been wrong for three days, by Thursday's close, the K-line approached the lower BOLL boundary, indicating a halt to the decline, and above the MACD water level, the red column is nearing its end. Furthermore, RSI14 at only about 55 is very safe, Friday indeed soared and all the way approached the upper BOLL boundary, by the close RSI14 had surpassed 80, time to take profit and exit. On Monday, Tuesday indeed fell again, is it possible that having leverage in hand delayed judgment?
NVDA has been wrong for three days. By Thursday's close was the time to take profit and exit, RSI14 crossed 72, the last four-hour K-line near the close entered and touched the 10-day moving average, indicating a balanced confrontation in the hourly market, should have taken profit and exited the market on Thursday, watching the last chance for both long and short on Friday, Friday is the last day to take profit and exit, a bit of gambling on Friday. There's no need to cling to the fight, in such a Friday gold trap, if there's a profit, you must profit and exit again, because an obvious drop is just around the corner the next day, quickly use cash to find the next stock opportunity.
PLTR has been wrong for several days. Last Tuesday was predictable to rise, the RSI14 reached 72 at the close, also with bullish expectations, on Wednesday continued to rise, by the closing hour, the slowest line of MOO reached 74.2, the fast and medium lines had long exceeded 75, at this moment, calmly take profits and exit retaining 60% of the position. If the next day on Thursday rises again, then take profits and exit keeping 50%, the later days like Friday are all junk time filled with uncertainty and volatility.
Summary: Confidence comes from having a mathematical approach, for example, determining the evacuation atmosphere priority sequence: first look at RSI 14, the orange zone 75 boundary; if unsure, then look at MOO's RSI (6, 14, 24) fast line not exceeding the safe line of 75, then look at the BOLL boundary line without approaching (measure the proximity scale for the trend in the last three days), if it exceeds the 20-day moving average, the excess portion cannot occupy 10% of the daily closing K-line, then come the 20 (or 25-day) and various moving averages sequence, followed by the trumpet opening degree, then the MACD dual lines trend and momentum above the water line, and whether there should be a crossover, followed by the KDJ intersection point position trending at 80. TODO In the future, use TV, FUTU programming to assist in market observation.
After all these are judged, it is unlikely to lose too badly. There will be another half year of bull market bottoming out, so seize the opportunity to guess the questions.
"Just as Noah built the ark to prepare for the flood, we must also be prepared to face the storm of the market."
**Appendix:**
- [MOO ETF Forecast & Price Targets](https://www.tipranks.com/etf/moo/forecast)
- [Semiconductor stocks swing: What's next?](https://www.moomoo.com/community/discussion/semiconductor-stocks-swing-what-s-next-1425539089)
- [SOXX ETF Stock Price, Quote & Overview](Visit the following link: https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxx/)
Sources
[1] Forecast and Price Targets for the moo etf - TipRanks https://www.tipranks.com/etf/moo/forecast
[2] Semiconductor stocks swing: What's next? - moomoo Community https://www.moomoo.com/community/discussion/semiconductor-stocks-swing-what-s-next-1425539089
[3] Stock Price, Quote and Overview of the SOXX etf - Stock Analysis https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxx/
[4] List of Holdings for SOXX - iShares Semiconductor etf - Analysis of Stocks https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxx/holdings/
[5] SOXX Price & Analysis - iShares Semiconductor etf - TipRanks https://www.tipranks.com/etf/soxx
[6] iShares Semiconductor etf (SOXX) - Kavout https://www.kavout.com/etfs/soxx/ishares-semiconductor-etf
[7] Stock Price and News for iShares Semiconductor etf (SOXX) - moomoo https://www.moomoo.com/stock/SOXX-US
[8] The latest stock news and headlines of VanEck Agribusiness ETF (moo) ... https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MOO/news/?ltr=1
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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猎熊日记｜新手入门｜作手素质：技术分析，仓位管理，心态定位.｜坚持炒股的前提是安详睡去｜名人警句 心灵鸡汤
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InGodITrust OP : Here is the diary written by the author as a novice stock trader, please keep the title, do not delete any content, and add humor to enhance the content. To conclude, a reference to a biblical story. Appendices: please add titles to the hyperlinks mentioned in the text. The manuscript is as follows until the end.
Tuesday midday
Learning lessons, cutting losses to pay tuition fees, not afraid of losses, as a student, my main purpose is to learn English and maybe solve some math problems.
In TSM and SOXX, moo both judged them as bullish trends. Misunderstanding that being bullish is due to poor experience, can't blame MOO.
SMH lesson, watching RSI + BOLL sets off alarm bells, it should have taken profits and withdrawn 1/3 last Wednesday, then the subsequent days' gains were just minor fluctuations not worth following.
VOO guessed half correct, mixed feelings: decided to cut losses and reduce 1/4 on Sunday closing, got it right. Should've guessed again at Monday's close, but toughing it out on Tuesday midday feels a bit passive. Now that there's gradually improved guessing accuracy, should've continued to reduce holdings until reaching a neutral position last night.
QQQ guessed wrong, moo's analysis clearly indicated RSI sounded the alarm on Monday's close: fast line over eighty for two days, central line just crossed eighty (75 is alarming), slow line rising close to 80, yet turned a blind eye, still considering buyer sentiment, when taking profits exiting should be done within buyer sentiment, not during top-escaping moments! Robin’s minute-by-minute analysis is even more evident, RSI14 indicators all maxed out at 100 and still not running?
DIA guessed wrong, barely half correct, Monday's opening at nine already proved that Sunday's analysis where RSI maxed out and reducing holdings was correct, Monday's close RSI continued to max out, clearly should have continued to take profits and exit, why did I guess maintaining buyer sentiment and even slightly adding to holdings yesterday, isn't exiting during oscillations a better choice? Just as the market opened on Tuesday, the MACD death cross appeared, these losses are self-inflicted!
IWM guessed wrong and yet to see if it's just luck! Should have taken profits and exited before market open, RSI14 had already soared over 75 by Monday's close, yet still slightly added to holdings? The fact that it hasn't dropped at this moment is just sheer luck, maintaining without a drop until closing then it's considered fortunate.
SOXX guessed wrong, RSI14 already crossed the 75 safety zone on Monday's close, such a warning sign, yet why ignorantly watched? The last chance for topping out has been wasted! According to Monday's close, RSI14 had already reached 83 crossing the orange safety zone of 80, surely surpassed 75, better escape now!
Broke out above the Bollinger top boundary at the market opening, closing in on the upper boundary in an upward trend at the close, this again hints at topping out! Guessed right on Monday, recent two days' win rate is half and half, so-so.
TSM has been wrong for the past two days, jumped out of the Bollinger upper boundary at market opening on Monday, closing in on it, showing signs of exiting, closing RSI14 indicator at 82 still calls for exiting! No need to look at anything else. Initially correctly decided to reduce holdings by 1/3, but why lose confidence later on? Should have seen approaching the Bollinger upper boundary and RSI14 hitting a high of 82, greater than 75 at that time, why no action taken. TSM has a leverage of 1 share, can't act recklessly, did ignoring safety precautions for the sake of leverage lead to this?
AVGO guessed wrong for four consecutive days. The previous Tuesday's close, RSI14 had already jumped over 80, that was the warning sign, when Wednesday's market day K-line jumped out of the Bollinger top boundary should have taken profits and left, then observed with a neutral position, shouldn't constantly aim to win, with a 1 share leverage in hand, being overconfident was the downfall? Self-inflicted, indeed.
MSTR wrong for three days, last Thursday's close K-line was approaching the Bollinger lower boundary, indicating a halt to declines, above the MACD waterline, red bars were at their limits. Additionally, RSI14 was only around 55, safe, next day Friday saw a significant rise and closing in on the Bollinger top boundary, by closing already surpassed RSI14 over 80, time to exit. Monday and Tuesday just kept falling, does leverage actually delay vision?
NVDA guessed wrong for three days. Thursday's close was the signal to take profits and exit, RSI14 leaped over 72, nearing the closing four-hour K-line in focus and near the 10-day average line, indicating a temporary ceasefire in the hourly-level market battle, should have taken profits at Thursday's close, at the final stage watch the Friday long and short battle. Friday was the last day to take profits and leave, a bit of gambling luck. No need to drag the battle, if by chance gained from Friday's golden pit, it's a must to once again take profits and exit, as a significant drop is just around the corner, quickly use cash to find the next stock opportunity.
PLTR guessed wrong for several days. Last Tuesday predicted a rise, RSI14 hit 72 at closing, with bullish expectations of a continued rise on Wednesday closing, the slowest line of moo reached 74.2 at closing, the midline had already crossed 75, at this point calmly exit and retain sixty percent position. If it rises again the next day, exit further to retain fifty percent, the following Thursday is filled with uncertainty and oscillations.
Summary: Confidence comes from doing math questions, follow a sequence for judging topping out atmosphere: first look at RSI 14, orange zone 75 boundary, if unsure, then check moo's RSI (6, 14, 24), ensuring the fast line does not exceed the safety line 75, then the boll boundary line must not be approached (measuring the proximity scale of the last three days' trend), if it surpasses the 20-day moving average, the exceeding part should not occupy more than 10% of the current day's closing candlestick, next is the order of the 20 (or 25-day) and various moving averages, then the trumpet mouth opening width, followed by the MACD dual lines' trend and momentum above the waterline, whether there should be a crossover, then the KDJ intersection point's position in a trend going towards 80. Todo: In the future, use TV, Futu programming to assist in market analysis.
After judging these, the losses should not be too severe. Plus, the bull market bottom cover for half a year, seize guessing opportunities.