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Bear hunting diary: When ammunition is low, patience is even more important. On Sunday, there was a bear hunting target but a lack of ammunition.

Bear hunting diary: When ammunition is low, patience is even more important.

On Sunday, I once again felt the frustration caused by the lack of position management. The Nasdaq is expected to fall further, there may be a buying opportunity tomorrow, but I do not have enough ammunition. This made me realize that I need to learn to be patient when bear hunting, waiting for a safe distance before shooting.

Reflection on position management

I have decided to make the following adjustments to my investment strategy:

1. Gradually replace SPY with VOO, which has lower management fees, for regular investment.
2. Adopt the 'six-four open' strategy: 60% for long-term investment, 40% for weekly swing trading.
3. Maintain 40% cash, available for buying opportunities or adding to dividend portfolios at any time.

This arrangement can ensure long-term stable income, as well as flexible response to market fluctuations, providing more ammunition for bear hunting.

## Blogger's Point of View Summary

### Treasure Warriors josie

- Nasdaq range: 18069-18183
- Nvidia may have the opportunity to get on board in the 258-295 range
- VST is worth paying attention to (even though the optimal buying point has been missed)

### JohnLu on Stocks

- Speculative funds have flowed into small cap stocks
- The Nasdaq is struggling to push higher.
- The S&P has reached the resistance of the last box high.
- Tesla may have a significant move.
- AMD is entering the top range.
- Microsoft may have a positive turn.
- Amazon may pull back to the range of 178-193.
- Google is expected to have a mild small rise.
- Apple is struggling to break through the resistance at 231-232.
- After nine consecutive increases, Meta may decline.

### Naje said about US stocks

- Focus on tracking block orders dynamics
- Prefer short-term high chasing strategy for 2-3 days

### CM US stocks

- Conservative operation is recommended
- Allocation advice: 60% long-term, 40% medium-term (long or short)
- Focus on the 20-day moving average
- Hold 30% cash to deal with the uncertainty in October.

### Old Ke's Viewpoint

- Bullish on Micron Technology's short-term performance
- But not recommended for long-term holding

## Summary and Action Plan

1. Optimize position management and reserve funds for buying low.
2. Combine RSP with weekly cycle trading to reduce average cost.
3. Pay close attention to the viewpoints of major bloggers, but form your own judgment.
4. 学习财报分析,提高个股研究能力。
5. 保持耐心,等待更好的猎熊机会。

猎熊之路漫长而艰辛,但只要不断学习、总结经验,终会成为市场中的顶级猎手。让我们继续前行,在熊市中寻找机遇!

相关链接:
1. [JohnLu谈股](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2f-49Z7OmU)
2. [娜姐说美股](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzQl-qZrVU0&t=15s)
3. [CM USA Stock](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03amM7mmFBo&t=787s)
4. [Senior Science Point of View](https://youtu.be/KhKFQq7uGCc?si=cOX21Ik0mn4Z9hlv)
5. [PCE Data Analysis](http://youtube.com/post/UgkxZEnDXQcABACvc2rs-3nNtEe6hDFIQsuJ?si=X487f8rHo4QAzMfl)
6. [Modi Financial Report](http://youtube.com/post/Ugkx7VT0eHbd2e3P8njTav7lBGrZtgQqFtvL?si=5RY3Uqo_V4ErOgAN)

Sources
[1] The best ETFs in the US in 2020 are a must-buy. https://www.tradesmax.com/component/k2/item/12278-etf
[2] [50,000] SPY vs VOO, understanding the terrifying high fees of these two ETFs? - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MP0iTv--cVo
[3] How to invest regularly in index funds in Hong Kong and the USA? - Lyu Xiaorong https://mednoter.com/invest-etf.html
[4]May I ask which brokerage app to use for regular investment in index funds? - 1point3acres https://www.1point3acres.com/bbs/thread-711467-1-1.html
[5] What are the strengths of the world's largest SPY ETF? How to choose between SPY, VOO, and IVV? Comprehensive analysis of the United States ... https://www.sinotrade.com.tw/richclub/USstock/SPY-ETF%E6%80%8E%E9%BA%BC%E8%B2%B7-%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%9C%80%E5%A4%A7SPY-ETF%E5%BC%B7%E5%9C%A8%E5%93%AA-SPY-VOO-IVV%E6%80%8E%E9%BA%BC%E9%81%B8-%E8%B6%85%E5%AE%8C%E6%95%B4%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E5%89%8D500%E5%A4%A7ETF--6305d7d5730fde4ef4d64f89
[6] VOO vs. SPY - Finance - Meikaf Forum https://www.uscardforum.com/t/topic/266915
[7] Which index fund do you choose for regular investment? - Huaren.us https://huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2393197
[8] [Fund] Investing for 20 years, choosing between SPY and QQQ? - Investment - 1Point3Acres https://www.1point3acres.com/bbs/thread-776750-3-1.html
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  • InGodITrust OP : Sunday Edition Draft
    This is a beginner's stock trading diary. Please proofread according to the author's style, you can expand the content, but do not delete anything, and make a final summary. Please add the links in the article as titles at the end. The manuscript is as follows: Bear Hunting Diary Bullets are scarce, patience is a virtue. Wait for a safe distance before shooting. Sunday, the dilemma of position management: no funds to buy the dip, Nasdaq is expected to fall further, there will definitely be an opportunity to buy the dip tomorrow but no money left.

    TODO switch to VOO gradually instead of buying SPY, consider cheap commission fees for RSP. Consider four tenths for weekly swing trading on top of the sixty percent RSP, and weekly settlement. This way, four tenths of cash can be retained, which I can deposit into my fourth team of dividend stocks, saving money for use at any time. In the future, when looking at stocks, first compare WOLF and JOHN, new trends, Jia's potential, Wil's strategies, Global, Morning Breeze, combine with CM, Sister Na. Quickly take notes and naturally find the next bearish direction, then there's a clear plan in mind.

    Next, start observing several bloggers with good weekly observations,
    Fortune Teller Josie's view:
    Nasdaq range of 18,069-18,183
    In her program, I noticed that I missed out on VST, the Texas Electrical Power Company, whose price rose from the 70s to the 120s, now I can only watch from the sidelines. I noticed the driving force of data centers in the energy sector but unfortunately missed VST, this stock is worth following along with Josie's analysis.
    Nvidia seems to have a chance to reverse and pick up passengers if it has already stabilized within 258-295, get on board.
    JohnLu's stock talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2f-49Z7OmU
    John's swing trading is on point, I am gradually focusing on weekly swing trading, which makes weekly RSP more efficient. This person's analysis shows that capital has already flowed into small cap stocks, Nasdaq can no longer reach new highs and is falling, S&P has risen to the previous high-pressure level of the equivalent box range. It was only then that I realized, from the perspective of a weekly swing trader, I shouldn't have bought leveraged SOXL on Friday.

    Nvidia holding at 122, may drop further.
    Tesla's monthly quarterly semi-annual annual intersections, big movements are expected, software for data processing cannot predict trends. Bloggers seem to suggest a chance for a sharp rise.
    AMD MACD zero axis golden cross has risen for three weeks, entering the top, the future is uncertain with big movements.
    MSFT's top three moving averages intersect, a possible turning point for the better.
    AMZN currently at 187 unable to break through the resistance zone and retracing, in the range of 193-178 MACD seems to be about to show a death cross signal, indicating a fall.
    Google 171-165-129 expected to rise moderately, the resistance zone is close to the semi-annual moving average, expected to have a slight increase.
    Apple resistance zone range 231-232 unable to break through, although there is a golden cross, the slopes of the two lines are too close, so there may not be a big movement.
    Meta has risen for nine consecutive times and shows two warning Tai Chi, it is very likely to fall.

    Sister Na talks about US stocks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzQl-qZrVU0&t=15s
    Specializes in tracking institutional dynamics, half-week operations are worth looking back on, I can't learn it, don't have time to track institutions so closely. She likes short-term chasing for two to three days.

    "Conservative approach needed now," from CM US stocks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03amM7mmFBo&t=787s Sixty percent long-term, forty percent medium-term, both long and short, should look at least at the 20-day moving average. Currently, the greed index has been around 70 for several days, need to be cautious on the retreat, keep thirty percent in cash. The market situation in October is very hard to predict.

    Insights from Old Ke: Micron Technology stocks rising makes sense, but should not be held long term, but I don't believe so, memory demand should follow a pattern, HBM technology should lead to supply shortage https://youtu.be/KhKFQq7uGCc?si=cOX21Ik0mn4Z9hlv todo learn how to read quarterly financial reports from this.
    PCE data is good, no need to worry about retracement http://youtube.com/post/UgkxZEnDXQcABACvc2rs-3nNtEe6hDFIQsuJ?si=X487f8rHo4QAzMfl
    Modi Financial Report Institution is suitable for long-term savings, great minds think alike http://youtube.com/post/Ugkx7VT0eHbd2e3P8njTav7lBGrZtgQqFtvL?si=5RY3Uqo_V4ErOgAN

    In conclusion, do what you can first. Position management is still inadequate now, failed to allocate reserved funds for bear hunting, in the future, RSP should be combined with weekly swing trading, try to lower the average purchase price as much as possible, increase the safety distance for bear hunting.

  • InGodITrust OP InGodITrust OP : Timestamp: Right now, the climax of the convergence of Tesla's three lines has indeed arrived as it continued to drop despite my preparation.
    Semiconductor index continues to fall, QQQ continues to fall.
    Shareholding at low points for buying opportunities.
    The first day of the week + the last day of September ….

  • InGodITrust OP InGodITrust OP : I forgot to mention that there is a super micro computer, SMCI, today. These two companies surged, and speculators seem to be leaving the technology industry for other places.
    Today is very special 😯.
    Luckily, I reduced my shareholding in MU to single digits. It relieved the shortage of ammunition.
    Bear hunting diary.
    Today's targets are SMCI and Tesla, let's see.

  • InGodITrust OP InGodITrust OP : NVDA also has a three-line intersection, which seems to be rising.

  • InGodITrust OP InGodITrust OP : watching TNA  IWM maybe…

猎熊日记|新手入门|作手素质:技术分析,仓位管理,心态定位.|坚持炒股須健好睡好|BRK.B 長壽则長持|波段操练如習武禪修
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