Bets Against Bitcoin Miners: One of the Worst Investments in 2023?

Chatterbox Moo wrote a column · Dec 7, 2023 19:43

The surge in Bitcoin's value this year has been the primary driver of gains in crypto stocks, as their performance is tightly linked to the price of this digital asset. Hopes of further regulatory clarity and that a US-listed Bitcoin exchange traded fund is on the horizon have also lifted the sector this year.

Bitcoin has rallied around 160% in 2023, with crypto broker $Coinbase (COIN.US)$'s stock rising 280% over the same period. Crypto mining giants $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ and $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ are two clear examples of how Bitcoin mining stocks can outperform the growth of Bitcoin itself. Marathon stocks have climbed 354%, and Riot has grown by 335% during the same period.

Source: Koyfin

Historically, miners tend to sell more coins to either replenish their cash flow or capture higher prices in a rally. Some of the miners are raising capital from Bitcoin sales in order to buffer the shock from the halving, a Bitcoin code update that will effectively cut mining rewards by 50% early next year.

The Bitcoin market experienced a period of frenetic activity in October. The top 13 public crypto-mining companies sold the equivalent of all the Bitcoin they minted in October, plus a little more.

Bets Against Bitcoin Miners: One of the Worst Investments in 2023?

$Hut 8 (HUT.US)$ and $Bit Digital (BTBT.US)$ which sold more than 300% of their BTC tokens produced in October.

Short sellers are getting pummeled

Investors who bet against crypto stocks during the bear market that began in 2022 have suffered losses this year as token prices rebounded. According to S3 Partners, crypto stock short sellers are down $6.1 billion this year in mark-to-market losses, with more than half of those losses being concentrated among Coinbase bears. If many short sellers are under pressure, it can cause further buying resulting from short covering, fueling price gains while exacerbating losses for the short sellers.

Source: S3 Partners

Investors looking for crypto exposure can now pick between the actual cryptocurrencies or crypto stocks," Ihor Dusaniwsky, a managing partner at data analytics firm S3 Partners said. "If the recent momentum continues, both look to outperform the market."

Risks associated with investing in bitcoin mining stocks

Investing in bitcoin miners also comes with risks. Miners operating performance and liquidity have been severely impacted by the price of bitcoin, the increase in electricity costs, as well as the increase in the global bitcoin network hash rate — a term used to describe the computing power of all miners in the bitcoin network. Some of the main risks include:

● Volatility: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and their prices can fluctuate rapidly. This means that the value of bitcoin mining stocks can also fluctuate significantly, making it difficult for investors to predict their returns.

● Regulatory risks: The cryptocurrency industry is currently unregulated in many countries, which means that there is uncertainty about how governments will regulate bitcoin miners in the future. This could result in increased regulation, which could negatively impact the profitability of bitcoin mining companies.

● Competition: As more companies enter the cryptocurrency mining space, the competition for mining rewards increases. This could put pressure on the profitability of existing bitcoin mining companies, particularly those with higher costs or less efficient operations.

● Technology risks: Bitcoin mining requires specialized hardware and software, which can quickly become outdated as technology evolves. This means that companies may need to invest heavily in upgrading their equipment to remain competitive, which could be costly.

It's too early to say if all bitcoin miners are out of the wood," said Ludovic Thomas, portfolio manager at Swiss-based Criptonite Asset Management that invests in digital assets. "Profitability increase always leads to network hashrate and difficulty increase."

Source: Barron's, Bloomberg, MarketWatch

Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more