[Biden vs. Trump 2.0] What stocks are likely to benefit from a strong presidential election year?
This year, entering the 4th year of the presidential election cycle, for the US stock marketA pivotal yearIt is. According to the Associated Press 2023/12 poll, the nonpartisan classabout 60%It was decided that Biden and Trump would be candidatesdissatisfiedIt's called. But as long as there are no unexpected events, they will be candidates for each party in any case.Political experts and futures markets now agree on whether current president Joe Biden will be re-elected in November or whether former president Donald Trump will recapture the White House。
According to the survey, no matter whether the Republican Party or the Democratic Party takes power, whether the parliament unites or divides,US stocks tend to perform wellThere is. According to data dating back to 1928,The fourth year of the presidential term is the second strongest year for the US stock market(The first is the 3rd year of the presidential term), what is the return of the S&P 500The median was 10.7%、7.5% on averageIt's going strong.
![[Biden vs. Trump 2.0] What stocks are likely to benefit from a strong presidential election year?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/feed_image/181250687/e8430dafea36320c9be06dbc3b11aa03.png/bigmoo)
Meanwhile, according to Bernstein analyst Mark Schilsky, policy decisionsspecific sectorYaindustries, and even moreIndividual stocksIt is said that there is a possibility that even it will have a big impact. Mr. Schilsky analyzed what kind of impact it would have on the market if Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump wins, and which stocks would benefit the most or would be sluggish.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$It has risen 20% or more since Mr. Biden took office as president, and in particular, considering that 2022 was the worst year since the financial crisis, the rate of increase for the past 3 years was quite high.
Mr. Biden's victory will be regarded by investors as a kind of “maintenance of the status quo.”
From early 2021 onwards, especially in Mr. Biden's first and third years,Large growth stocks have achieved excellent results. If we follow this, if the current situation continuesThe US superlarge stock “M7” (Magnificent 7) may have an advantageSchilsky said.
However, if Biden is re-elected,Some companies may face regulatory threats from the Department of Justice and the U.S. Federal Trade CommissionThere is. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$with $Amazon (AMZN.US)$Over the past few years, alwaysSubject of litigationInvestors are not excessively concerned about regulatory risks so far, but there is a possibility that this situation will change in the future. The Department of Justice and the FTC have filed many lawsuits over the past three years, which can temporarily push down stock prices.
The S&P 500 Index rose nearly 70% during President Trump's tenure. Interest rates, inflation rates, and economic growth rates were all relatively low under the Trump administration, but now the opposite is true.
If Mr. Trump wins, it means a major change, especially if the Republican Party controls both the upper and lower chambers. From the viewpoint of changes in investment regulations, Mr. Trump's victory will promote the replacement of active managers' portfolios.
If Trump becomes president again,The biggest winners are companies fighting against government regulatorsI think so. Mr. Schilsky $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$、 $Live Nation Entertainment (LYV.US)$It is written that there is a possibility that the lawsuit from the government will be withdrawn.
There are many high-tech companies that have been blocked by the Biden administration's “stricter” regulatory system. If Trump wins, I think it is natural that the regulatory environment will relax quite a bit.
Also, if corporate tax falls again,Major media companies based in the US will also benefitI think so. Mr. Schilsky is a major cable company $Charter Communications (CHTR.US)$and the 3 largest wireless network companies ( $T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$、 $AT&T (T.US)$、 $Verizon (VZ.US)$)Telecom industry winnersListed as, and further $Fox Corp-A (FOXA.US)$with $Match group (MTCH.US)$、 $eBay (EBAY.US)$、 $Expedia (EXPE.US)$Such asProfitable internet companiesadded to the list.
One thing to note, though, is that presidential election year shouldn't be emotional or rushed to make decisions. Many other variables can influence portfolios, and it's also important to keep in mind that different sectors, such as healthcare and technology, may respond more strongly than others to election results and policy changes.
Distributor: Business Insider, Wind
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
ー MooMoo News Sherry
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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181338057犬心久美子 : Biden hasn't functioned as president since the beginning. A person pilots him and the election itself is a cunning method, even if his opponent isn't Mr. Trump. After all, if Magnificent 7 leads the market
I anticipate it.
tanpopo_6533 : a