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Big Economic Reports Are Hitting Thin Market. What to Expect?

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Moomoo News Global wrote a column · Aug 30, 2023 20:48
This week is considered the last hurrah of summer.
The JOLTS report Tuesday, illustrates that employers are slowing hiring amidst a challenging economic landscape characterized by sticky inflation, high interest rates, and reduced credit availability. The significant decline in job openings and quits in July suggests that companies are not as eager for labor while workers are less likely to leave their current jobs.
A weaker labor picture is considered a key to the Federal Reserve halting, and ultimately reversing, its path of rate hikes. Bonds reacted accordingly, with $U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US2Y.BD)$ dropping from 3 basis points higher before the reports to 10 basis points lower within minutes. Stocks followed bond prices higher with the $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ closing 1.45% higher and the $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up more than 1.7%. Fed Funds futures' expectations for rate hikes dropped from 22% in September and 69% in November to 14% and 51% respectively.
The Mood Seems to Shift
· Volatility markets seem to believe Tuesday's numbers are the start of a trend, with VIX dropping to levels not seen since August.
Big Economic Reports Are Hitting Thin Market. What to Expect?
· As for the bond market, the US 10y yield retreated back to 4.15%, a 0.2% decrease from its peak in August.
Big Economic Reports Are Hitting Thin Market. What to Expect?
· US dollar index gave up earlier gains, falling to 103.7 after JOLTS data.
Big Economic Reports Are Hitting Thin Market. What to Expect?
What Comes Next?
Investors are shifting their focus to the core PCE Price index released on Thursday and non-farm payroll data on Friday. Wall Street expects core PCE MoM to remain at 0.2% from the previous month, and non-farm employment to drop by 17,000 in comparison, according to Bloomberg. Powell stated in his speech at the Jackson Hole conference that the Fed's decision to continue or pause interest rate hikes is economic data dependent. Tueday's jump is a reminder that liquidity considerations are currently more important to stock traders than the economy's health.
Market optimism may persist if upcoming economic data continues to fall below expectations.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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