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Big Japanese Yen News
Macro Update
Over the weekend, the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is sustainability achieved. He added that the BOJ could have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can proceed with policy changes.
Yen futures are reacting strongly to start off the week in japanese bond and forex markets. The yen has taken a beating due to its ultra low interest rate policy. A move away in the negative interest rate regime should provide a boost to the japanese currency. Maybe the yen can finally get out of this long-term slump it has been in.
The japanese bond market responded strongly with a large spike in yields, mostly concentrated in the shorter end of the curve. This could be an indication that bond traders believe that the BOJ will follow through with its word and end this long era of negative interest rates. The next batch of japanese bond auctions will be interesting to watch in order to get an idea of how the bond market takes this new development.
Yen futures responded strongly in early trading as the currency is up almost a percent to strat the week in early trading.
If the BOJ does indeed end their negative interest rate policy, then it will be a major development and a giant shift in the dynamics of the global macroeconomy.
There have been several instances in the past when the bank has hinted toward shifting its policy. But it never came into fruition. Maybe this time is different.
Most analysts I've heard are saying this will have no effect on the Yen. Many are even calling for more downside before any Yen strength arizes.
If the Fed decides to increase interest rates, or if the market believes that they will, then there will likely not be any yen strength any time soon. The next CPI reading is this wednesday.
Technical Outlook
On the technical front, nothing looks good for the yen just yet. The long-term trend is a strong downward trend. There doesn't seem to be any reason to buy the yen in this chart. There could be a double bottom dip buy opportunity soon, but it is much too early for that.
The only only thing even slighly bullish is in the very short time frame. On the 4-hour candles, there is a slight bullish divergence between price action and both the RSI and MACD. This could indicate that in the short term, the downtrend was losing strength. This cold possibly be just a short-term rebound to cool off the meltdown.
Conclusion
Could this be the beginnings of a bear market rally in the yen? So far, the yen is starting the week off very strong. There might be a good swing trade opportunity here. Personally, I am still waiting to go long. But a 1% move in a forex pair should always be noted. If this move starts to carry more steam, then I might jump in for a quick swing trade.
If you want some exposure the japanese yen without opening a forex account, then follow these tickers. You can even gain leveraged exposure to the ups and the downs in japanese yen futures.
As always, this is not investment advice. Good luck trading. Be careful and be patient. Dont anticipate the market. Rather, participate in the market. Give your investments time. Don't be greedy. Don't invest in anything you don't understand. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Don't listen to the hype. Don't fomo or panic into or out of trades. Do your own due diligence. And just follow the trends. A trend is your friend.
$Japan 3-Year Treasury Notes Yield (JP3Y.BD)$ $Japan 5-Year Treasury Notes Yield (JP5Y.BD)$ $Japan 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (JP10Y.BD)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf (UUP.US)$ $Wisdomtree Trust Bloomberg U S Dollar Bullish Fd (USDU.US)$ $DB US Dollar Index Bearish Powershares (UDN.US)$
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $VIX Index Futures(APR5) (VXmain.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ $Gold Futures(APR5) (GCmain.US)$ $E-mini Dow Futures(MAR5) (YMmain.US)$ $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(MAR5) (ESmain.US)$ $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(MAR5) (NQmain.US)$ $E-mini S&P MidCap 400 Futures(MAR5) (EMDmain.US)$ $E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures(MAR5) (RTYmain.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $VIX Index Futures(APR5) (VXmain.US)$
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Winnerspayout : Amazing how I get notice of the QQ QQ QQ could not find its report anywhere even got a badge of it then it was just vanished I even asked advisor to get intouch with as well as I called in spoke with someone nothing until now .
SpyderCall OP Winnerspayout : what happened now?
razo2 : well there goes the US bonds. lol.
Winnerspayout : I am praying for a miracle
SpyderCall OP razo2 : yup. it's looking scary at this point. The scarier it gets, the more I want to buy.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
I still haven't bought though
razo2 SpyderCall OP : actually I have the same thought as well. lol. fact wise these bonds will be bought out soon when recession comes. but the timing is kinda crucial.
SpyderCall OP razo2 : absolutely right![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Winnerspayout SpyderCall OP : I have it in my earnings !!