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Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue

Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue getting mainstream media attention,
Top 20 biopharma have $180 bil in sales at risk from patent expirations by 2028 according to EY,
But that estimate could prove low compared to…👇
Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue
Bloomberg Intelligence business estimates 170 drugs w/ close to $400 bil in est global sales could lose patent excl by start of next decade,
Big Pharma wants to avoid stagnant rev growth like last patent cliff in 2010…
Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue
Big Pharma’s like $Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US)$ which has two of its key drugs, Eliquis and Opdivo, losing patent protection in 2026-2028,
Those two drugs generated +$20 bil in 2022 sales or 43% of BMY’s total sales that year, which is why…
Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue
$Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US)$ spent $22.9 bil to acquire 3 biotechs ( $Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX.US)$ , $Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX.US)$ , $RayzeBio (RYZB.US)$ ) in Q4 23,
Peak sales for lead programs of 3 buyouts are proj at about $8.3 bil...or less than half $20 bil rev at risk from patent expiry by 2028,
BMY's pipeline has more rev potential but still work to do to grow future sales…
Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue
Big Pharma spent $178 bil on M&A in 2023,
But Stifel estimates the top 16 Big Pharma still have over $500 bil in firepower for more deals,
And IQVIA Biotech estimates another $180-$200 bil in biotech M&A this year, so …
Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue
2024 should be another big yr for biotech M&A,
Last yr the avg deal size was $6.7 bil with an avg 82% return on 19 >$1 bil deals,
15 of 19 deals were for drugs in Ph3 or later incl 6 drugs that were already on the mkt,
Expect to see more M&A and de-risked assets this yr and w/ strong Biospecialist ownership,
Last yr an avg of 6 biospecialist investors owned 23.1% of the biotech buyout co’s…
Big Pharma’s patent cliff issue
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