$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ I want to put this out there just to stir...
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ I want to put this out there just to stir up a conversation possibly and to get you thinking in a different way then maybe you are maybe what you hear on TV or read about online.
if everybody thinks the same way the conclusions are always the same. you may agree with what I'm going to say you may disagree and either one is perfectly fine it's not going to change my mindset.
there's people on moo moo of a variety of education a variety of experience with investing and a variety of liquid networks that may be someone just starting out with a few dollars to people that are very very wealthy. and one has anonymity on this site so you really don't know who you're speaking to or with.
you either believe Bitcoin is going to go significantly higher $100000 ++in time or you do not.
there's a lot of speculation with what is going on at Bitcoin now I read. periodically the posts here as well as other sites different people that have been involved with Bitcoin from day one that are very wealthy as well as Michael sayler from microstrategy and everyone in between.
it's my feeling and I've shared this with you that the large block sells that are coming are from the government they have taken a stance that whatever they can do to create misery and suffering in the lives of Donald Trump supporters they are going to proceed with accordingly
Donald Trump is a supporter of Bitcoin initially he was not now he is and he has done it I think strategically to obtain votes of the younger people that are more inclined to believe there is a very bright future in Bitcoin and that invest in Bitcoin.
the Democrats failed miserably a week ago and their effort to hold their own equivalent of a Bitcoin convention they sent a politician out of California a Mavericks team owner his name I'm not going to bother with and several other individuals that are pro Bitcoin in an effort to garnish votes from younger people. this meeting that they had resulted in a scream and hollering and yell fest it completely imploded and it's evident to me that Democrats who are in power right now are going to continue their effort of capping Bitcoin.
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35+ yrs in the trenches, raised tens of millions for start ups, syndicate ipo's, yrs on trading desk mkt maker.
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10baggerbamm OP : pt 2
so let's talk some numbers and try to come up with an understanding of where I'm going because if you don't have a model to work with you're really flying blind and it's not to say that what I'm going to propose to you is 100% accurate but I think I'm pretty close.
the government has seized approximately 210,000 Bitcoin which is worth north of 13 billion dollars at its peak.
from 2014 to 2023 there have been a total of a whopping 11 Bitcoin auctions and you have a very small amount sold for example in 2022 they sold five Bitcoin were 268,000 so this amount is really irrelevant and amounts to nothing more than a rounding error from what I'm going to propose.
it's my feeling that they started selling back in June I saw 300 Bitcoin sales 400 Bitcoin sales 500 it began accelerating and there's no logic that any individual would sell this many this quick is certainly in my feeling is not an ETF that's dealing with any liquidations that's going to be selling to cause a breakdown in price of Bitcoin.
10baggerbamm OP : pt 3
some of the pressure on bitcoin was as a result of the Japanese currency yen dollar unwinding due to margin calls and we're never going to know this amount so we have to come up with a number and say all right let's suppose 20% of the large block sales were liquidations because it's estimated that 9 trillion dollars of equities were sold worldwide as a result of this currency unwind.
the size of Bitcoin sales that I'm looking at have increased where now I see multiple sales basically at the market is the only way I can describe it they're just taking out everybody that has an interest in buying and causing this downward slide that range anywhere from 500 to 950 Bitcoin at a single time. so if we do quick and dirty you add the two avg sales 1450 / 2 with 725. so it appears to me that about 7:25 is the average sale of the government right now and I expect it to increase
it's my feeling that what we're looking at is a total of about 289 times that they can have these large block sells before the exhaust the full supply that they own.
I believe that the selling will accelerate going into November for the election because they want to have zero left in the event that Donald Trump wins. so I don't expect to see any type of breakout to the upside even if chairman Powell is very dovish this Friday if in September he cuts rates. and the reason why I say this is all correlations of Bitcoin and risk on of Bitcoin and Nvidia no longer are working.
10baggerbamm OP : pt 4
we're never going to get a true answer from this administration because they lie with impunity and according to Chuck Schumer he made it very clear will do anything and anything to stay in power including lie.
the only way that we will find out if what I'm saying is correct is if Donald Trump wins because I'm quite certain that he will say we're going to build a reserve a Bitcoin because he said he was going to do it and he'll probably come out and say that we have nothing left that we're going to go out in the open market and buy it. that will be the only vindication that what I'm saying is 100% correct.
in the meantime I'm going to be adding to what I own via the leverage ETF b i t x. I sell naked puts routinely on support lines on down days collect the premium and if I get put the ETF on expiration and I go very short I go weekly I'm fine with that. but I think we are going to have some significant downward pressure because based off of my quick and dirty numbers it looks like they've got about 70% left to sell versus what's been done right now to be flat by election day. so if the volume increases the pressure increases the technicals look like shit and I believe that's their intention. so I would accumulate if I were you how I'm doing it on weakness on down days through the leverage ETF by selling naked puts that are out of the money on support moving averages because I don't see $70,000 coming until after the election and that's only if Donald Trump wins.
TechWhiz : Thanks for your insights. Good to know different views