$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Given the data of capital trend in the cu...

Given the capital inflow data in the current chart and the background of the approaching US election, capital needs to hedge. This logic is very likely in the current global situation of increasing uncertainty.

Analysis points:

1. Capital hedging nature: During the US election period, the market will fluctuate due to increased policy uncertainty, which may prompt some investors to choose cryptocurrencies as a hedge. Bitcoin is considered an effective hedge asset due to its decentralization and weaker correlation with traditional financial markets.

2. Phenomenon of large net inflows: The chart indicates that the net inflow of large orders exceeds the outflow, indicating that institutions or large capital investors are entering the Bitcoin market. This may be because of the approaching election, where capital remains neutral and seeks risk diversification while awaiting results. Therefore, these funds will choose to flow into assets such as Bitcoin during the election period, driving up its price.

Price trend prediction: If this trend continues until the election results are determined, the price of bitcoin may reach a temporary high point around the election day or when the results are announced. Once the presidential candidate is confirmed, capital anxiety may ease, funds may gradually return to traditional markets, and the capital of the losing side may continue to hold bitcoin as a hedge.

Subsequent decline logic: After the new president takes office and the policy direction becomes clearer, capital will flow back into industries that align with the new policy strategy. This could lead to a decline in the price of bitcoin, especially when the new policy emphasizes the demand for energy. The price of bitcoin may be further squeezed. This is because bitcoin mining has a high dependence on energy, and an increase in energy prices may raise mining costs, while also prompting more miners to sell the bitcoin they mined, increasing market supply and causing prices to fall.

Conclusion:

If the assumption holds true, under the demand drive of bitcoin before the election, there will be an upward trend in the short term. But attention needs to be paid to two key points:

When the election results are announced: The price may reach a temporary high point.

As the new policy gradually becomes clear: Under a clear new policy framework, capital may gradually flow out of bitcoin, returning to traditional industries, causing the price of bitcoin to fall.