Bitcoin Halving Impact: Past Trends and Future Projections

1. Historically, Bitcoin's price has initiated at halving times, with most post-halving periods showing an increase, suggesting a higher probability of long-term appreciation.

2. Despite short-term U.S. economic strength, the eventual return of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit Bitcoin in the medium to long term, with the current cycle being the most policy-favorable.

3. The significant bullish factor in this cycle is the entry of established capital, potentially rivaling the 2017 ICO boom in impact.

4. Acknowledging Bitcoin's substantial market cap, which may influence the magnitude of future price movements.

I.Third Halving (May 12, 2020):Blockreward halved to 6.25 BTC. Price on the day was 8,870, peaking at 7.81 times that value. Post-halving saw a steady increase, reaching a high of 8,870,peakingat7.81timesthatvalue.Post−halvingsawasteadyincrease,reachingahighof69,355 in September 2021, despite a temporary pullback due to China's mining ban.

II.Second Halving (July 10, 2016):Block reward halved to 12.5BTC. Price jumped from 650 to nearly 650tonearly20,000, a 29.23 times increase, during the Fed's rate hike cycle and the ICO boom.

III.First Halving (November 28, 2012):Block reward halved to 25 BTC. Price increased from 12.30 to a peak of 12.30toapeakof1,163, a 93.55 times surge, during a period of Fed quantitative easing.

IV.Fourth Halving (Projected for April 20, 2024):Block reward expected to halve to 3.125 BTC. The pattern of price increases post-halving is likely to continue, with established capital entry and potential rate cuts providing support. Despite Bitcoin's growing market cap, a moderate increase to 108,000-108,000−113,000 is estimated for this cycle.