Bitcoin has a 50-50 chance of reaching $100K by year-end

Nearly half of Bitcoin options traders are betting on a six-figure price by the end of 2024, with a few even eyeing a surge to $150,000 despite the recent pullback to $90,000, on-chain data shows.

“Interestingly, the likelihood of BTC exceeding $100,000 has risen to 45% from last week’s 34%, with a new 4% probability of surpassing $150,000,” on-chain options DeFi protocol founder Nick Forster said in a Nov. 26 markets report.

According to Derive data, 41.3% of contracts traded were calls, while 38.3% were puts betting Bitcoin would drip with “very few sellers.” These grant the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase (call option) or sell (put option) Bitcoin on or before an expiration date at a particular price (the strike price).

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is priced at $92,680, down about 7.02% from its near $100,000 peak, which topped out at $99,541, according to CoinMarketCap data.

The data also indicates that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin has a 68% chance of retracing to $81,493 or rising to $115,579. Meanwhile, there’s only a 5% chance of it dropping below $70,000 to $68,429 or reaching as high as $137,645.

However, some analysts have not ruled out the possibility of more severe pullbacks.

CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju said in a Nov. 26 X post that even in a “parabolic bull run, Bitcoin can see -30% pullbacks.”

Ju highlighted that “such corrections repeatedly occurred” during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin then surged from $17,000 to $64,000.

“This isn’t a call for a correction — just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market,” Ju added.