Bitcoin Rally: Beyond Trump’s Election, Supply Shock and Halving Take Center Stage

While Trump’s election win has contributed to Bitcoin’s recent surge, industry insiders point to a more significant driver: the post-halving supply shock. Following the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, which cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin's supply flow has tightened. Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, notes that “there’s not enough supply available at current prices to satisfy demand,” leading to higher prices as the market recalibrates.

Bitcoin ETFs introduced this year have intensified demand. Just on Nov. 11, ETFs accumulated nearly 14,000 BTC compared to only 450 BTC mined. Myers suggests this trend will likely fuel another post-halving “bubble,” a pattern seen every four years due to the fixed supply mechanics unique to Bitcoin.

Market Potential and Institutional Interest Analyst James Check adds that Bitcoin’s scarcity—just 1.2 million BTC left to mine—sets it apart from other assets like gold, which sees constant new supply. Bitcoin’s market cap of $1.6 trillion is poised for growth as it continues to gain institutional interest. American financier Anthony Scaramucci highlights that major asset allocators and national strategic reserves may begin including Bitcoin, intensifying scarcity-driven price gains.

Investor Takeaway
With 94% of Bitcoin already in circulation or lost, the halving-induced scarcity combined with ETF-driven demand paints a bullish outlook. While Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance may have given the market a push, it’s the underlying supply mechanics that hold the real key to Bitcoin’s potential rally ahead.