Bitcoin's Turning Point Ahead? What to Expect in September

The volatility in the crypto market is drawing attention. After Bitcoin fell below the $58,000 mark, it must prove its resilience to avoid a potentially dangerous trend reversal. Can Bitcoin maintain its upward trajectory, or are we facing a correction?

The Bitcoin price experienced a notable decline, falling below the psychological threshold of $58,000. According to Matthew HYLAND, a recognized crypto analyst, this drop could be a negative signal.

Over the past week, several things have increased the pressure to sell Bitcoin. One big reason is that the Mt. Gox trustee announced that creditors from the now-closed exchange will start getting repayments in July, totaling about 142,000 Bitcoin, worth nearly $119 million.

Investors are wary that Mt. Gox creditors, who have waited over a decade to regain their Bitcoin, might start selling it on exchanges once they receive it.

Another point of selling pressure has appeared. Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that the US government recently transferred 3,940 Bitcoins to the Coinbase exchange.

On Tuesday, Arkham Intelligence reported that the German government recently moved $24 million worth of seized Bitcoin to the Kraken and Coinbase exchanges.

These transfers to exchanges indicate a plan to sell some of the assets, which may increase downward pressure.

As the 2024 US election enters its final stage, crypto companies pour in funds, trying to influence the outcome. Nearly half of the corporate funds in the election come from the crypto industry, totaling about $119 million. According to a Public Citizen report, Coinbase and Ripple accounted for more than 80% of the donations.

Claypool's research reveals that since the 2010 ruling, crypto corporations are the second-largest spenders on election-related activities, following only fossil fuel conglomerates.

Under the Biden administration, the crypto industry faces increased scrutiny. However, Republican candidate Donald Trump is trying to position himself as a supporter of the crypto industry by capitalizing on the divide between the industry and the Democrats. He even delivered a keynote speech at a major Bitcoin conference in Nashville last month.

Rick Claypool, research director at Public Citizen and author of the report, said that the large sums of money from crypto companies aimed at "silencing critics and boosting supporters" exemplify the flaws of the Supreme Court's controversial Citizens United decision.

On-chain indicators support a rise in Bitcoin, but historically, this major cryptocurrency has delivered negative returns to traders in September. This year's cycle is considered different, with Bitcoin spot ETFs approved and increasing institutional demand for the asset.

If institutional capital continues to flow into Bitcoin ETFs and drive ongoing demand for the crypto, BTC prices may remain above the key support level of $60,000.

Meanwhile, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since December 2021. This decrease in exchange supply indicates that the amount of BTC in exchange wallets is falling, suggesting that Bitcoin still has room to rise, according to Santiment. Typically, a decrease in supply might be favorable for asset prices.

The Bitcoin weekly chart suggests BTC might drop to around $49,000 (a key support level) to clear out liquidity before bouncing back. This would mean a 15.58% drop in Bitcoin's price. If a rebound occurs at this level, $60,000 is the next resistance level.

Many analysts, like Matthew Hyland, are hopeful about Bitcoin. However, some worry it might only keep rising with a pullback. Markus Thielen from 10x Research suggests waiting for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000 before investing, which differs from Hyland's opinion.

Trader Jelle believes Bitcoin could hit six figures soon and is on track to reach this goal by year-end.