Bitcoin is recovering to $0.095,000 in 2025! Can we expect a new all-time high? In the first quarter after the previous halving event, there were '3 victories out of 3 matches'.

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jan 7 18:23

$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$On January 6th, the price again surpassed the 0.1 million dollar mark in US time but then turned downward. On the 13th, Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily dipped below 0.09 million dollars, plummeting to 0.089329 dollars, setting a new low since November of last year. However, on Tuesday morning in Japan time, Bitcoin has recovered to 0.095000 dollars. With Donald Trump expected to take office as the President of the United States on January 20, 2025, mentions of virtual currency are also anticipated. Furthermore, the market is increasingly interested in Bitcoin's future price movements.

Bitcoin is recovering to $0.095,000 in 2025! Can we expect a new all-time high? In the first quarter after the previous halving event, there were '3 victories o...

What is Bitcoin's halving?
BitcoinHalving (Harving)Halving refers to the event where rewards for cryptocurrency mining are halved. Specifically, it occurs approximately every 4 years or every 210,000 blocks are mined. Halvings have occurred several times since Bitcoin was first issued in 2009. The block reward, which was originally 50 Bitcoin, has been halved to 25 Bitcoin, then to 12.5 Bitcoin, then to 6.25 Bitcoin, and most recently during the halving on April 20, 2024, it decreased to 3.125.

The purpose of the halving is to maintain the economic sustainability of Bitcoin until it reaches the maximum issuance limit of 21 million coins by reducing the speed of new Bitcoin supply to prevent excessive inflation. Additionally, halving often has a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. With the decrease in the supply of new Bitcoin, the supply-demand balance can fluctuate, leading to a potential price increase. This is considered one of the reasons why the market expects a price increase after halving.

The "3-0 win" in the quarter after the previous halving.
Historically, looking at the Bitcoin price movements, performance has been good in the first quarter following the halving. For example, in the first quarter of 2013, it rose by 539%, in 2021 by 103%, and in 2017 by 12%. 2024 is the year of Bitcoin's halving which was carried out on April 20, 2024. Therefore, the market is closely watching the movement of Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2025.

Will Bitcoin achieve a new record in the first quarter?
Mitigation of selling pressure: Reduced inflow to exchanges and outflow from miners.
According to a report by Coin Telegraph on January 5th, since November 2024, the inflow to Bitcoin exchanges (total amount of BTC sent to exchanges) and the outflow from miners (amount of BTC sent by miners to exchanges) have significantly decreased. This indicates a mitigation of selling pressure. Based on data from CryptoQuant, the BTC inflow peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024, over a period of about 2 months. In December, the inflow decreased, with daily Bitcoin inflows ranging from 11,000 to 79,000 coins. The decrease in inflow to exchanges aligns with the decrease in outflow from miners. Miners often sell Bitcoin to cover operational expenses.

Source: CryptoQuant

After Trump's victory in November, Bitcoin surged, leading miners to tend to sell Bitcoin at high prices to secure profits. According to data from CryptoQuant, on November 11th, miners transferred 25,367 BTC to exchanges, reaching $88,000 per Bitcoin. Subsequently, The outflow of BTC has decreased.According to some Analysts, if the inflow to Bitcoin exchanges and outflow from miners continues to decrease, market confidence is being strengthened. Additionally, with the decreasing supply, it is believed that the price of Bitcoin may further increase.

Source: CryptoQuant

Analyst Estimates

According to analysts at Bitfinex, the price of Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Investors are diversifying funds into various assets, and expect Bitcoin to move between $95,000 and $110,000 by the end of January.

Based on Technical Analysis using the Elliott Wave Theory, John Grover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, expects Bitcoin to drop to $0.089 million before surpassing $0.125 million in the first quarter of 2025. This price movement depends on how much President Trump fulfills his promises to the cryptocurrency industry after taking office. Generally, the first 100 days after a US president takes office are considered crucial for assessing the effect and influence of new presidential policies. He stated, "If President Trump does not demonstrate the actions he promised in his first 100 days in office, Bitcoin might face price adjustment."

According to Bernstein, the upward trend of Bitcoin has just begun, and as regulations become clearer and institutional investors increase, it is expected to reach the cycle peak of $0.2 million by the end of 2025.

*The content posted is as of the time of creation and does not guarantee the current numbers. Also, it does not solicit or recommend specific products or brands.

Sources: Bloomberg, MOOMOO, Binance News, Coin Telegraph
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
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