Bitcoin Weekly Observation (August 19-25): The US September rate cut is finalized, and a breakthrough in BTC key position is expected

Bitcoin is about to enter a new round of interest rate cuts. Combined with the full turnover in the past six months and the reduction in supply accumulated by halving, it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in key positions.

This week, BTC opened at $58436.20 and closed at $64251.93, with a high of $65050.08 and a low of $57820.00, up 9.95% with an amplitude of 12.37%.

In the past nearly 6 months, BTC has been fluctuating at a high level, with short-term losses accumulated for 2 months. The decline once reached 33%, which is enough to erode the confidence of most people.

As Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Friday revealed that the interest rate cut was finalized, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and BTC also broke free from the suppression of the 200-day line in one fell swoop, completely getting rid of the suspicion of a bearish turn.

But we must point out that since the birth of BTC, interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes have not necessarily brought about a turning point in the market. Although this connection has been strengthened since BTC broke through the $1 trillion market value and integrated into the mainstream financial market through ETFs, BTC’s own supply and demand logic is the fundamental factor that determines its price trend.

According to statistics from EMC Labs, after a long period of consolidation, 4.15 million BTC chips have accumulated in the range of less than 20% between $60,000 and $73,700. In this range, three key cost lines are constructed: $63,700 for short-term investors; $62,000 for the median mining machine shutdown price in the United States; and $58,100 for the US ETF if the price drops a little further.

There is another key data that most people no longer mention. After the fourth BTC halving in April this year, the annual supply of BTC will be reduced by 164,000 pieces, which is approximately equal to the sale of one Mt. Gox + the German government; in four years, it will reach 656,000 pieces, accounting for 22% of the 3 million pieces in circulation on the exchange.

All of these require time to accumulate. Looking back one year later, this may be the most critical support level for this round of real bull market, a very solid starting point, and may also be the bottom of the next bear market.

Specifically for this week, we observed a total inflow of $1.4 billion into stablecoin and ETF channels, continuing the trend of steady inflows since July.

With the interest rate cut finalized and technical indicators and on-chain supply structure forming an upward trend, we expect BTC to fluctuate upward in the short term and is expected to set a new all-time high in Q3.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a major speech at the global central bank meeting, turning dovish for the first time since the interest rate hike cycle, and making it clear that the Fed's focus will shift from reducing inflation to protecting economic growth and employment.

Combined with previous information, the market understood it as the official start of the interest rate cut cycle in September, and the "shoe dropped". The three major valuations rose by more than 1%, the US dollar index fell to 100.68, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 3.795%, and London gold rose to US$2,511 per ounce.

It can be said that the trend of interest rate cut cycle is taking shape, which is expected to stimulate the gradual return of leveraged funds. At present, CME Fed observes that the maximum probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September is still there. Before the September interest rate meeting, there are two heavy data to be released, namely the August CPI and non-agricultural data. If these two data exceed expectations, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September will increase.

Following the massive inflow of $16.55 last week, stablecoins inflows reached $934 million this week, which continued to decline compared to last week and the week before. Both USDT and USDC achieved positive inflows of $934 million and $58 million respectively, with USDC inflows slowing down.

BTC ETF channel achieved positive inflows in all 5 trading days, with a net inflow of US$507 million for the whole week. Among them, the speeches of the global central bank meeting on Friday stimulated an inflow of US$252 million on a single trading day on Friday. The continuous inflow of the two major funding channels provided material support for the rise.

This week, the market continued to "go from short to long", and the trend intensified. The scale of long-term holdings increased by 105,100 coins, while short-term holdings decreased by 107,500 coins. Short-term holdings have been reduced for 9 consecutive weeks, and this week is the largest reduction week in eight weeks.

Short-term investors also finally got out of their losses this week, with selling also decreasing, with realized losses exceeding $100 million only in one day.

The exchange's stock of BTC outflow this week was 2,100, and the outflow slowed down, but inventory reduction continued.

The miners increased their holdings by 200 this week, achieving five consecutive weeks of increase. The hashrate has dropped, but remains high. The hashrate has gradually returned to its historical high. Overall, the "miner massacre" has ended.

New addresses and active addresses continue to be repaired, the number of transfers has increased, and Gas increased dramatically on the 20th, which was due to the launch of staking for BTC ecological projects.

The number of new addresses, active addresses, and total transfers in the Ethereum ecosystem continue to recover in the expansion zone, and the ecosystem is gradually returning to active status.

Solana's new addresses, active addresses, and total transfer numbers continue to recover, and it has returned to the expansion zone and continues to recover. The overall pace is consistent with the Ethereum Eco, but the on-chain data is not strong.

The EMC BTC Cycle on-chain data engine shows that the bull cycle indicator has recovered slightly, from 0.125 last week to 0.25.

EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.