BLACK FRIDAY
The Black 5 data was released today, and Black 5 sales are pretty good. According to Mastercard data, Black Five's offline sales increased 1%, but online sales increased 8%. On the other side, Adobe said Black 5's e-commerce sales reached 9.8 billion, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year, exceeding the company's previous forecast of 5.7%. Among them, supporting Black Friday sales this time are electronic products, such as smartwatches and televisions, as well as toys and game products. But household repair tools didn't perform well. So this Black 5 should be pretty cool for tech companies and e-tailers, while Black 5 sales for companies like Home Depot on the other side are probably average. Although Black Five's sales volume was better than expected, there are also some superficial consumer wallets in this data that are actually a bit nervous. That is, Adobe discovered that the correlation between product discounts and sales volume is even more obvious this time around Black Friday. Second, using the “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) service, the sales volume was 79 million, 47% higher than the same period last year, and 72% higher than a week ago. Although consumers are buying more with loans is also because there are more merchants that now support buy first and pay later than a year ago, BNPL sales are 72% higher than a week ago, and it can be seen that consumers themselves are actively choosing to use loans to shop. In addition, Adobe also pointed out, “Impulse consumption may have played a role in the growth of Black Five, because 5.3 billion of 9.8 billion sales came from mobile devices, and anchors and social media ads made it easier for consumers to shop comfortably on mobile devices.” This is why Black 5's e-commerce sales have increased by 7.5%, but offline sales are only 1%. Therefore, a large part of the reason for the high growth of Black Friday e-commerce this time is because there are fewer people shopping offline, and for the first time, the number of people shopping using mobile phones has surpassed that of computers. Therefore, it is clear that e-commerce trends during the pandemic period were not short-lived. As the base figure settles, e-commerce will always resume growth and continue to surpass offline growth. This Black 5 is a good example. Vivek Pandya, chief analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, also said, “I do think the paradigm surrounding the Black Friday experience in physical stores has changed, such as the trouble of long queues.” He also added, “Consumers are “more proactive” when shopping online because they are more likely to make horizontal price comparisons and thus get better prices.” Therefore, future shopping trends will still be more biased towards online and virtual. Offline is already basically saturated. Other than retaliatory offline consumption and travel after the pandemic, there won't be much growth in the future. However, back to the topic of shopping data, Adobe expects that consumer enthusiasm for shopping will continue throughout the weekend until Monday, Saturday, and Sunday. The total sales volume is expected to cost 10 billion US dollars, then today, that is, Cyber Monday, sales will reach 12 billion US dollars. Although these 4 days combined have surpassed 40 billion in sales, don't forget the signals we mentioned earlier, as well as the sales data before Black 5. It can be seen that most consumers didn't spend much before in the fourth quarter, and many were waiting for Black 5. It also shows that most of the consumption may have been concentrated in the past 4 days. Adobe also believes, “As the holiday season progresses, consumer spending is likely to begin to decline. As the last major sales day of the holiday season, Cyber Monday is likely to be the last peak of spending on non-essential items for the rest of the year.” Anyway, good sales on Black Friday don't necessarily mean that the total sales volume for the fourth quarter will be good, because now American consumers are becoming more sensitive to prices. People don't buy much before the holiday season, and Black Friday also favors buying heavily discounted items, which means they probably won't spend much more for the rest of the year. Therefore, this Black 5 data cannot be used to represent the strength or weakness of the US economy; it is likely that consumers are just saving money this year. Of course, there will also be discounts and gifts for Christmas, but most of the Q4 purchases have already been completed at the end of November.
As for the general market, there are currently no changes. There will be a PCE report on Thursday, but it may not cause much volatility in the market. The current plan is the same as before. Although the market is currently somewhat stagnant, there is still no pullback. I don't really expect to vote yet, but there's nothing I can do about it. I have to set my vote regularly according to the plan. So I plan to invest in batches of $2000 to the M1 account for the next few days in November, which is a little less than usual, because I feel that the pullback is probably coming soon, and I'm a little unable to go down and make too many manual investments. However, the November base will definitely reach at least $2000 into the M1 account.
By the way, I transferred $13,000 in cash from Weiniu Growth Stock to Weiniu's interest account, and I plan to transfer another $2,000 tomorrow, because it still feels a bit wasteful to just keep doing things. Since the same brokerage firm has this function, I'll use interest first. Therefore, at present, Weiniu only plans to keep 1,000 cash for self-defense, and then transfer the money when it needs to buy stocks. Anyway, they are all the same brokerage firms, and the transfer is quick.
Finally, I wish everyone a Happy Cyber Monday. We will continue to work together tomorrow! Go for it!
By the way, I transferred $13,000 in cash from Weiniu Growth Stock to Weiniu's interest account, and I plan to transfer another $2,000 tomorrow, because it still feels a bit wasteful to just keep doing things. Since the same brokerage firm has this function, I'll use interest first. Therefore, at present, Weiniu only plans to keep 1,000 cash for self-defense, and then transfer the money when it needs to buy stocks. Anyway, they are all the same brokerage firms, and the transfer is quick.
Finally, I wish everyone a Happy Cyber Monday. We will continue to work together tomorrow! Go for it!
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