BMI analysts predict oil demand will soften in 2025 due to increased non-OPEC supply

Crude oil futures fell on Monday after Hurricane “Beryl” hit Texas directly and weakened by a tropical storm.

However, although it is unlikely that Beryl will cause a major hindrance to fuel supply, heavy rain and flooding will occur in Texas, starting with Houston, and there is a possibility that fuel demand will drop because movement becomes difficult.

“Gelber & Associates received a report from Reuters and said, “The hedge set prior to Beryl's landing was lifted because there was relatively little damage to crude oil facilities in the damaged area.

According to Dow Jones, Ritter Busch analysts said about Beryl's impact, “Much of today's price drop seemed like the development of a scenario that buys classic rumors and sells news.”

Also, due to optimism surrounding the possibility of a cease-fire in the Gaza dispute between Israel and Hamas, and progress in negotiations, crude oil is facing downward pressure and the beginning of the week.

Equity's chief market analyst Han Tan told Market Watch that “crude oil bullies are gaining momentum due to the threat that Hurricane 'Beryl' will amplify US supply risks.”

Nimex crude oil closed at 82.33 dollars/barrel at -1% of 82.33 dollars/barrel, and Brent crude oil closed at -0.9% of 85.75 dollars/barrel (CO1:COM).

Meanwhile, Nymex's August natural gas monthly limit (NG1:COM) closed at 2.366 dollars/mmBTU, which was +2% higher. Hurricane “Beryl” has the impression that gas is bearish rather than bullish, but NatgasWeather.com says “the storm brought about a decline in demand through a drop in temperature, power outages, and a decline in LNG exports.”

According to Dow Jones, BMI analysts said in a recent analysis that oil demand is expected to soften next year due to oversupply from non-OPEC countries.

The production volume of non-OPEC countries excluding the United States is expected to increase for the first time in 2 years since 2005, with an average of 0.858 million barrels per day this year and 0.94 million barrels per day next year.

“This growth is being driven by conventional projects with long lead times and payback periods that are generally unaffected by short-term fluctuations in crude oil prices. “Therefore, if there are no delays in the project, these barrels will be in operation over the next year and a half, regardless of market conditions.”

BMI predicts that Brent crude oil will fall to 82 dollars/barrel next year, but it is said that a downward revision is being considered.