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BOCOMI Report on E-Commerce Valuations and Prospects

Taobao/Tmall ( $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ ):

Market Share: Stable.
Growth: Expected high-single-digit GMV growth for the September quarter.
Monetization: Anticipated to improve with full-site promotions and technical service fees from September.
GMV Growth: Expected to outpace the broader market.
Monetization: May fluctuate due to ecological governance strategies.
GMV Growth: Projected to grow mid-to-high single digits in Q3 2024, aided by trade-in subsidies and supply chain improvements.
GMV Growth: Expected to slow to 15% in Q3 2024 due to competitive pressures.
Valuation Insights:

Alibaba: 2024E PE at 9.7x.
JD.com: 7x.
Pinduoduo: 6.7x.
Kuaishou: 8.5x.
Valuation: Still considered low.

Investment Outlook:

Alibaba: May benefit from Southbound Stock Connect and improved monetization.
JD.com: Profit expected to improve.
Pinduoduo: Likely to gain market share but with potential stock price fluctuations.
Kuaishou: Short-term GMV growth pressure but potential for increased user penetration.
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