BofA on China Economic Outlook

Global growth forecast revised downward to 3.1% from 3.2% this year, expected to be 3.3% next year. The growth picture is not worrisome.
China's growth forecast was revised downward to 4.7% this year and 4.5% for next year and 2026. The main drivers are depressed consumer confidence and insufficient policy support.
This year exports were a key pillar but are now challenged. Next year growth drivers will be a combination of exports and consumption. It is more difficult to achieve a 5% target without more policy support.
Policy support is endogenous. If the slowdown doesn't materialize significantly, may not have more policy support. Fiscal policy has issues between central and local governments.
Revision from 5% to 4.8% growth implies might miss target. May spur more stimulus or policy offset. Market pessimism about China may lead to government reaction as they have room to do more. Need to monitor economic evolution and authorities' reaction.