ひろ0723 commented on a stock · Dec 28, 2024 15:12

Bonds are not moving in comparison to stocks anymore.

$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ The bond buying back of the fund is over, and the bonds are being sold, it's over.Selling stocks and selling bonds as well, with concerns about the New Year's decline and no hedge. When the interest rate was lowered in September, there was a welcome decrease from the long-lasting high interest rate policy, leading the flow from bonds to stocks. Under a strong economy, it is not just a matter of M1M2 dimensions at the moment, but a discussion on whether inflation will progress further under the Trump policy, how far it will go. Inflation is also embraced as prices rise, serving as evidence of a strong economy. Even if it rises, if it continues to be bought, prices will not fall. In 2025, tariffs, tax cuts, immigration rejection, bond issuances, and temporary bond issuances will further raise interest rates, delaying rate cuts. With each inflation indicator appearing, the 30-year bond yield will increase, and unfortunately, the possibility of a rate hike being mentioned at a Federal Reserve meeting or taking action for a rate hike in the coming years would regress into a high interest rate state.Even if the unemployment rate rises a little, a rate cut cannot be implemented. If it is, there is a concern that inflation will progress further, leading to an increase in interest rates.I think it's dangerous to mix up short-term bonds and long-term bonds when considering bond price movements. During economic downturns or at the border between economic cycles, the contrast between stocks and bonds is apparent. In a robust economy, short-term bonds with high yields that are quickly redeemed serve as a high-return savings option, while long-term bonds with safe assets have a different purpose. Buffett found that the PEs were too high and there were no suitable investment options, hence concerned about a major adjustment phase. Therefore, he temporarily shifted his assets to ultra-short-term bonds with a yield of over 4% for redemption. While there are concerns about a decline due to overheated stock prices, the purchase was not made due to worries about future economic downturns. This is precisely why he chose to buy ultra-short-term bonds instead of long-term bonds. In fact, the movement of selling long-term bonds and shifting to short-term bonds can also be observed.In the future, if inflation progresses too rapidly, it may lead to a stock market decline and bond prices rise in an inflationary recession scenario. Alternatively, if the Trump administration does not implement the expected inflation policy, there is a higher possibility of interest rates starting to decline. This could mark the turning point for interest rate declines and should calm down temporarily.I want to determine where the immediate bottom price of the 30-year bond is. If I were to buy, I might consider it from there.At that time, I would like to start with managing investments in the TLT or EDV, which are high-dividend ETFs that only rise and allow for long-term holding due to their non-decreasing nature, making them potentially the strongest choice.If a severe economic downturn is looming, I would also consider TMF. Predicting bond price movements can be quite challenging due to the impact of multiple external factors, making it an interesting area to study. I really want to be educated on this subject.

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ひろ0723 OP : Buffett's purchase of ultra-short-term bonds should also have the meaning of the end of life. I think it's because I've gotten too old and don't have the ability to imagine the versatility, applicability, and development potential of today's extremely complex high-tech. So I buy stocks based only on financial indicators. There is no way to reach EPS negative stocks such as quantum computer systems. it's not an age where computers are simply amazing with the advent of computersBuffett says he won't buy anything he doesn't know what he's selling. You mean you don't know. I know pizzerias

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J_M_RIN : As long as high growth continues, bonds will be inferior to the attractiveness of Stocks in the long term. I think the recent selling of bonds is due to risk-on, and we can check the answer in the movement of Stocks after next week. The power of the rally is yet to come

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ひろ0723 OP J_M_RIN : Well, I'm hereIs it revived overnightAs expected, it recovered too fast

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J_M_RIN ひろ0723 OP : I spent the whole day analyzing yesterday from many angles, and the answer came out that it was definitely a scene where we had to be bullish, so believe in yourself and welcome tomorrow first!

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ひろ0723 OP J_M_RIN : That's right. I was starting to have the misconception that funds were controlling everything, but the main actors moving are actually the general public. I am convinced that funds simply amplify the ups and downs without creating the trends, and just ride the wave, so it's pointless to worry about whether the funds will exit before entering.However, the timing for entering based on sectors and individual stocks varies, and I am extremely cautious and quick to exit individual positions. When it comes to buying, I take 2 to 3 days to consider the right timing, and for selling, I jump off even at 80 points. And I will hop back on repeatedly, that's my style.In the first half of this year, I was quite enthusiastic about SOX and bonds, but the items I purchased remained undefeated.Next year, since there won't be any good ETF options, I will create mini ETFs for individual investments, so it may not go as smoothly, but it will be exciting!

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J_M_RIN ひろ0723 OP : There has never been a rally in a year when the S&P 500 rose by more than 1% on the first day of the rally, in other words, 100% data. I pray that it will convince you that the decline on Friday was a great opportunity to extend the profit margin.

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ひろ0723 OP J_M_RIN : Interest rates around 3.8-4.4 are a range that moves with risk on and off, and above that is when the economy is strong, so I think it's a range that moves with an increase or decrease in inflation. So now bonds are falling due to risk on and rising inflation.

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ひろ0723 OP J_M_RIN : I don't think there is any need to worry, as even when the Presidental election went up in November, December was over 90%, and the following year was close to 80%.There is data showing a decline in the second year of inauguration, so I really want to lift it firmly in 2025.While other policies may still be in place, excessive tariffs may lead to weak domestic consumption and overseas weakening, so we should be cautious about the impact from late 2024 to 2025. That's why it's essential to follow the strong anomaly from January to April and expand wide.

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J_M_RIN ひろ0723 OP : Individual stocks vary depending on the brand~ There are many bubbly stocks that ignore earnings, so I think it's quite important to shift to stocks that are riding the bubble while also keeping up with earnings timing. Hiro-san, who is reliable, is not very worried...

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ひろ0723 OP J_M_RIN : Starting with quantum EPS, the negative feeling of overheating is not normal, is it? So I'm in the latter half of the season where multiple brands are hedged, so I'll do it somewhat, but after all, whether it's tourism, aerospace, energy, I place importance on charts and financial indicators, and whether it's a multi-sector company in the future, and give top priority

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ひろ0723

NAS100でNISA満タン+QQQ、JEPQでたっぷり。SOX当面無視。2025データ系電力系・防衛宇宙・金・レジャー・量子でやり散らかす！

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