Brokers Expect BABA 1FQ Adjusted Net Profit to Drop Over 12% YoY; Focus on Strategic Guidance

Alibaba is set to announce its 1FQ25 results for the period ending June 30, 2024, this Thursday (August 15). Despite potential revenue exceeding expectations, brokers forecast a significant drop in 1FQ25 non-GAAP net profit, ranging from RMB34.8 billion to RMB45.59 billion, with a median of RMB39.33 billion, marking a 12.5% YoY decline.

Investors are particularly focused on Alibaba's strategic guidance, including the prospects for e-commerce growth in China, narrowing the gap between customer management revenue (CMR) and GMV growth, and the potential inclusion of BABA in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in September.

Broker│1FQ25 Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast (RMB)│YoY Change
Morgan Stanley│45.59 billion│+1.5%
CICC│41.468 billion│-7.7%
Goldman Sachs│40.99 billion│-8.8%
BOCOMI│39.522 billion│-12%
Haitong Int'l│39.121 billion│-12.9%
UBS│38.683 billion│-13.9%
Guosen Securities│35.152 billion│-22%
Citi│34.8 billion│-22.5%
Calculated based on BABA's 1FQ24 non-GAAP net profit of RMB44.922 billion.