BTC fell to $58,000, ETH spot ETF had net outflows for 9 consecutive days, will the September curse take effect again?

Four days ago, Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole saw a sharp rise due to the positive comments made by Fed Chairman Powell on the September rate cut. However, at 5 a.m. today, Bitcoin suddenly began to fall rapidly , falling from 61,870 USDT to 58,000 USDT in two hours, a drop of about 6.3%.

OKX market data shows that BTC briefly touched 65010 USDT on the morning of the 26th, forming a recent high; in the past two days, BTC has been falling all the way, with the cumulative maximum decline exceeding 10%; as of press time, BTC fluctuated around 59100 USDT.

The decline of "mainstream altcoins" other than BTC is not much different from BTC. At 5 a.m., ETH fell 3.5%, BNB fell 2.17%, and SOL fell 3%. The Meme sector fell more sharply . During the same period, PEPE fell 5.9%, BONK fell 3.8%, BRETT fell 3.5%, and WIF fell 2.9%.

In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $319 million , of which the vast majority are long orders, amounting to $287 million. In terms of currencies, ETH liquidated $102 million and BTC liquidated $95.71 million.

This rule is not only reflected in the crypto market, but also in the long-term bull market of the U.S. stock market. The average monthly performance of the Nasdaq index over the past 10 years is shown in the figure below. There were only two years of growth in the past ten years, and in most cases there was a certain degree of decline.

Currently, Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF ETHE has only outflowed about 35%, and it is not yet time for the marginal reversal of selling power. BlackRock, the main inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF before, has not shown the same positive power again. ETHE has a cumulative net outflow of US$2.55 billion, while BlackRock's ETHA has a net inflow of about US$1 billion. It will take a long time for the marginal reversal .

Greeks.live Macro Researcher Adam posted on the X platform that cryptocurrencies are entering a pullback trend after several unsuccessful attempts to hit pressure levels. Implied volatility IV across all major maturities has fallen significantly, with BTC Dvol currently below 50%, and has only been below current levels for 30% of the time in the last year. Option data shows that RV fell from the high of 100% on August 9 to the current 40%, and the actual volatility level of BTC dropped drastically, which is also an important factor driving the decline of IV. In terms of block trading, block call options started to bottom out one after another today, with maturities mostly chosen at the end of September and the end of October, and users of the giant whale are starting to lay out long positions.

There is still debate about Vitalik’s cognition, the significance of his work and the Ethereum Foundation’s expenditure. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion. The market has entered a period of insufficient expectations and chaos. The next grand narrative or expectation is urgently needed to ignite and lead the enthusiasm of the market and funds.